Wednesday’s release of softer Retail Sales figures could prove a Dollar negative – ING

The Dollar starts the week quietly. Economists at ING analyze USD outlook.

A range-bound week for the Dollar

We get to see October releases for US CPI and Retail Sales. Headline CPI could be flat MoM, which would see the YoY dropping to 3.3%, while core could stay stubbornly firm around 0.3% MoM/4.1% YoY. This should be a neutral outcome for the Dollar, although Wednesday’s release of some softer Retail Sales figures could prove a Dollar negative and may finally suggest that tighter credit conditions have caught up with the US consumer.

It looks as though it will be a range-bound week for the Dollar. We would suggest that DXY struggles to make it over the 106.00/106.25 area early in the week and could be back to test the recent lows at 105.35/105.40 by the end of the week as the threat of a US government shutdown comes into starker relief.