Weakness likely to persist below 1.10 – Scotiabank

ECB VP Villeroy said the central bank will very probably lower rates at next week’s policy decision, in keeping with his and other policymakers’ comments that have made a 25bps cut all but certain (and all but priced in) for the 17th, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

EUR off earlier low

“Wider short term yield spreads versus the US have effectively undercut the EUR in recent weeks and largely explain spot’s slide from the 1.12 highs. The EUR retains a soft undertone but a further shift in yields/spreads may be needed to drive more losses absent fresh drivers for FX (such as the US election) in the coming weeks.”

“Bearish—The minor consolidation on spot seen over the course of the week so far appears to be breaking down bearishly for the EUR, tilting risks towards more losses. While spot remains below 1.10, the breakdown trigger for the 1.12 double top pattern, broader risks are tilted towards a dip to the low 1.08s.”