Robot and young woman face to face.
In 1942 The Manhattan Project was established by the United States as part of a top-secret research and development (R&D) program to produce the first nuclear weapons. The project involved thousands of scientists, engineers, and other personnel who worked on different aspects of the project, including the development of nuclear reactors, the enrichment of uranium, and the design and construction of the bomb. The goal: to develop an atomic bomb before Germany did.
The Manhattan Project set a precedent for large-scale government-funded R&D programs. It also marked the beginning of the nuclear age and ushered in a new era of technological and military competition between the world’s superpowers.
Today we’re entering the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI)—an era arguably just as important, if not more important, than the age of nuclear war. While the last few months might have been the first you’ve heard about it, many in the field would argue we’ve been headed in this direction for at least the last decade, if not longer. For those new to the topic: welcome to the future, you’re late.
What Is Generative Artificial Intelligence?
Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that is capable of generating new and original outputs that are indistinguishable from human-generated content. GAI systems can be used to create text, images, music, videos, and just about anything a programmer can put their mind to. In utopian visions of these technologies, a human-machine partnership would only enhance our human capabilities. It would make us faster to respond when presented with new information, it would help us think more creatively by generating thousands of iterations in the time a normal human may make only a handful, and it would add depth to our ability to think critically, among other improvements.
However, there are also concerns about the potential risks and ethical implications of GAI, particularly in terms of the potential for misuse and abuse of this technology. While surface-level problems you’ll hear about in the news such as the creation of deep fakes or the spread of disinformation are high on the general public’s list of concerns there are potentially many more existential risks associated with GAI. A few experts have recently brought to attention include:
- Autonomous Weapons: One potential worst-case scenario for GAI is the development of autonomous weapons that could make decisions without human intervention. If such weapons were developed, they could cause immense harm and destruction, as they would be able to operate without human oversight and could make decisions that go against human values and ethics.
- Unemployment and Economic Disruption: GAI systems more than likely will replace human workers in many industries, leading to widespread unemployment and economic disruption. Whether short-term or sustained long-term, this could have a significant impact on the global economy and create social and political instability.
- Existential Risks: Some experts have raised concerns about the potential for GAI to surpass human intelligence and become a “superintelligence” that could pose an existential threat to humanity. If we fail to create the appropriate controls and GAI systems were to act in ways that are not aligned with human values and ethics, it is believed these systems could cause immense harm or even lead to the extinction of the human race.
It is important to note that these scenarios are hypothetical and not necessarily inevitable outcomes. However, they do highlight the potential risks and ethical implications of GAI, and the need for careful consideration and regulation of this technology. For these reasons and more, this author is raising the flag to say we should not put a pause on GAI but should instead push our government to invest in this effort as if it were the Manhattan Project of the modern day. This is the time to hit the gas as responsibly as possible.
Why Should We Invest?
The world is facing increasingly complex and sophisticated cyber threats. A recent report from Google GOOG notes that state-sponsored cyberattacks on NATO countries increased by 300% in 2022 alone. The World Economic Forum’s Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2023 found that 93% of cybersecurity experts and 86% of business leaders believe that the current levels of global instability will harm their ability to ensure cybersecurity over the next two years. Moreover, now that everything is connected to the internet there is the potential this creates a “poly-crisis” where the overall impact of multiple events is greater than their individual impact. In a world like the one we live in today, we will need GAI simply to manage all the chaos.
Generative Artificial Intelligence systems will allow our experts to analyze and make sense of vast amounts of data from multiple sources far more quickly and accurately than human analysts alone. This could be especially useful for intelligence agencies, which need to make sense of large amounts of data in real-time to identify potential threats and take action to prevent them. The systems can also be trained to detect patterns and anomalies that might otherwise be missed by human analysts, which could help identify potential security risks before they escalate. Additionally, GAI can help automate many tedious, routine tasks and free up human analysts to focus on more complex and strategic tasks.
Furthermore, investing in GAI research and development can help maintain the United States technological leadership and competitiveness in the global market. If the U.S. falls behind in the development of GAI, it could lead to a disadvantage in terms of national security, economic growth, and innovation. The potential benefits of GAI for national security, intelligence gathering, and maintaining U.S. technological leadership provide a compelling argument for investing in GAI on a large scale that dramatically outweighs the downsides.
Other Nations Have Already Been Investing
In 2017, China released a national plan to become a world leader in AI by 2030, outlining a roadmap for investment, research, and development in AI. The plan called for China to catch up to the United States in AI technology by 2020, achieve major breakthroughs in core AI technologies by 2025, and establish a world-leading AI industry with global influence by 2030. Since the release of the plan, China has made significant investments in AI research and development that includes funding for AI startups, research centers, and universities—and the results of this strategy can be seen across the country as technology proliferates faster than ever before.
However, there are also concerns about the potential risks and ethical implications of China’s investment in AI, particularly in terms of surveillance, social control, and potential military applications. Since China’s announcement other nations, including the United States, have also generated strategic investment plans. As of March 2023, the Biden Administration released an updated Cybersecurity Strategy signaling agreement that now is the time to accelerate those investment timelines while simultaneously taking steps to ensure that AI is developed and used in a responsible and ethical manner.
Towards A Safer World, The Future We Deserve
The outcome of the Manhattan Project was the successful development and testing of the world’s first atomic bombs. This success also paved the way for the development of more advanced nuclear weapons and the nuclear arms race during the Cold War. However, the use of atomic bombs and the resulting devastation also raised important ethical and moral questions about the use of nuclear weapons in warfare, which still resonate to this day. It’s safe to say we will be required to navigate similar conversations about Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI).
Similar to the Manhattan Project, creating the most powerful yet controllable GAI will involve the coordination of a large number of scientists, engineers, designers, humanitarians, and researchers to work on a complex and ambitious goal—potentially exponentially more and in a remote, decentralized manner. Additionally, we will need our leaders to collaborate with nations around the world to establish international regulations and treaties for the development and use of GAI, ensuring that the technology is developed and used responsibly.
Done well, GAI systems could be used to solve some of the world’s most pressing issues, including climate change, terminal disease, and global poverty. GAI systems could be used to optimize the use of resources and increase efficiency, leading to significant improvements in productivity, economic growth, and quality of life. They do not need to be relegated to simple content creation and entertainment purposes or siloed away as dangerous, existential threats to be shut down.
Used properly the development of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) will benefit everyone and contribute to a more equitable, sustainable, and prosperous world for all. And without a doubt we can be sure that whoever controls this next wave of innovation will also control the free world. My message to all decisions-makers who have made it this far: now’s the time to hit the gas, we can’t get caught pumping the brakes.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joetoscano1/2023/04/03/we-should-consider-chatgpt-signal-for-manhattan-project-20/