Warren Buffett's simple investing advice that's beaten most pros for 12 straight years: Morning Brief

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Wednesday, April 27, 2022

“I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have for a long, long time to people,” billionaire investor Warren Buffett said at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting last May.

That’s been pretty good advice, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he repeated it again at the upcoming shareholder meeting on Saturday.

In a report published last month, S&P Dow Jones Indices (SPDJI) analysts found that 85.1% of U.S. large-cap equity fund managers underperformed the S&P 500 in 2021. It was the 12th straight year that more than half of the managers in this category lagged the index.

In other words, investors following Buffett’s advice have outperformed most professional money managers every year for more than a decade.

Sure, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has been having a rough go lately, falling about 13% from its Jan. 4 high of 4,818.

SUN VALLEY, IDAHO - JULY 07: Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett rides in a golf cart at the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference on July 07, 2021 in Sun Valley, Idaho. After a year hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the world’s most wealthy and powerful businesspeople from the media, finance, and technology worlds will converge at the Sun Valley Resort for the exclusive weeklong conference. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) — Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett rides in a golf cart at the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference on July 07, 2021 in Sun Valley, Idaho. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

But as SPDJI’s data suggests, it’s incredibly difficult to overweight and underweight stocks in a way where you beat the market.

Indeed, many of the most popular stocks in the market have been doing terribly. On Tuesday, Mike Zaccardi tweeted stats showing how Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Facebook parent Meta (FB) are all down between 20% and 53% from their highs.

Following last Tuesday’s disastrous earnings announcement, Netflix (NFLX) shares are now down by 70% from their recent high.

According to a different report, SPDJI analysts found that only 22% of the stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index from 2000 to 2020.

No one’s saying that investors should outright avoid trying to pick winners for their stock portfolio. However, investors should understand that stock-picking is incredibly hard, and there’s a pretty good chance that you will ultimately underperform the market.

Today’s newsletter is by Sam Ro, the author of TKer.co. Follow him on Twitter at @SamRo.

What to watch today

Economy

7:00 a.m. ET: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended April 22: (-5.0% during prior week)
8:30 a.m. ET: Advance Goods Trade Balance, March (-$105.0 billion expected, -$106.3 billion during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, March preliminary (1.5% expected, 2.5% during previous month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Inventories, month-over-month, March (1.6% expected, 1.1% during prior month)
10:00 a.m. ET: Pending Home Sales, month-over-month, March (-1.0% expected, -4.1% during prior month)

Earnings

Pre-market

6:30 a.m. ET: Humana (HUM) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $6.74 per share on revenue of $23.45 billion
7:00 a.m. ET: Kraft Heinz (KHC) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 54 cents per share on revenue of $5.83 billion
7:30 a.m. ET: Boeing (BA) is expected to report adjusted losses of 15 cents per share on revenue of $15.95 billion
7:30 a.m. ET: T-Mobile (TMUS) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 26 cents per share on revenue of $20.12 billion

Post-market

4:00 p.m. ET: Amgen (AMGN) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $4.09 per share on revenue of $6.10 billion
4:00 p.m. ET: Qualcomm (QCOM) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $2.93 per share on revenue of $10.60 billion
4:05 p.m. ET: Ford Motor (F) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 36 cents per share on revenue of $32.16 billion
4:05 p.m. ET: Meta Platforms (FB) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $3.13 per share on revenue of $28.24 billion