Vladimir Putin’s New Refugee Crisis Is A War Crime

Full-scale conflict has yet to begin, but the humanitarian cost of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is ramping up. In a set of announcements, filmed days before their release, Russia’s appointed leaders of the occupied Ukrainian states of Donetsk and Luhansk ordered some 400,000 residents—women, elderly and children—to leave their homes, and head into an uncertain future in a Russia that appears entirely unready for the humanitarian crisis ahead.

A few busses and children were trotted before cameras of Russian-sponsored media, and Russia dispatched a high-level emergency services bureaucrat, announcing any refugees that made the trip to Russia would stand to receive a paltry 10,000-rouble payment—about $130 dollars—for their pains. Outside of that, there is no evidence that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has made any other preparations to support these refugees—or any others that might be generated in the impending conflict. 

The West has repeatedly let Vladimir Putin spark humanitarian crises without sanction in Georgia, Chechnya and other places. That must change. This time, the West is well within their rights to demand Russia show if it has prepared—at all—for the humanitarian needs of displaced Ukrainian refugees.

If Russia proceeds to invade Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s failure in preparing for a massive humanitarian crisis should be prosecuted as a war crime—with the West moving quickly to seize Russian assets to address a flood of war victims from Ukraine.

400,000 Refugees Is A Drop In The Bucket:

By moving some 190,000 troops to the Ukraine border, Vladimir Putin has demonstrated that Russia is perfectly able to manage a logistical challenge. But Russia has dedicated few funds and little expertise to keep Russia’s refugee or migratory flows from sprawling into a massive humanitarian crisis. 

Last year, when the U.S. Customs and Border Protection apprehended some 1,659,206 people at America’s southern border, the Biden Administration diverted more than $2 billion from other priorities to help cover the cost of caring for 20,000 unaccompanied immigrant children alone. Humanitarian aid is not a trivial expense.

It is a sobering sign if Russia is unwilling to protect people it describes as “ethnic” Russians. With billions in foreign reserves, there is no reason other than raw malice to have overlooked the humanitarian consequences of what is appearing to be an unjustified invasion of Ukraine. 

The indignation needs to start now. If Russia invades Ukraine, the refugees Putin is generating now will be multiplied many times over, as millions of Ukrainians rush for Western borders and Europe. If just 10% of Ukraine’s 41 million citizens head to the safety of Europe, the West must account for them, and then force Russia and Russian oligarchs to pay their expenses. 

Failure to lay down a marker right now will give Russia an opportunity to build outrage later, railing at the West’s failures to manage Russian aggression. 

Unleash Samantha Power: 

The U.S. has a good tool to highlight Russia’s humanitarian failures. Over at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Administrator Samantha Power offers a good means to hammer home a simple message that Vladimir Putin’s failure to plan for a humanitarian disaster is a war crime. While somewhat prone to over-reach and being kept on something of a probation for being too avid a self-promoter, Power is an eloquent voice who knows exactly how to amplify a message. This may well be her moment to shine. 

But, to work effectively in rolling back Russia’s media-aided aggression, USAID is going to need lots of money, fast. As an agency that “provides timely and effective humanitarian response, bringing disaster relief and lifesaving assistance amidst complex crises,” the agency is spread thin, tasked to “respond to 75 crises in more than 70 countries each year, providing food, water, shelter, health care, and other critical aid to people who need it most.”

Congress has delighted in defunding the agency, and after suffering through “four years of proposed cuts to foreign assistance in the President’s Budget Requests,” the battered agency will need all the help it can get to scale up and prepare for the challenge ahead. Putin is counting on embroiling the West in this kind squabble—wasting time and energy via partisan—and likely Russian-enhanced—bickering.

Focus On Putin’s Crimes:

If Russia proceeds to invade Ukraine, Russia’s oversight in preparing for refugees should be prosecuted as a war crime. And while the U.S. and others will face challenges and messy political fights to get funds rolling to address the humanitarian crisis Putin seems ready to unleash, those efforts should, in no way, be seen as a stain upon the democratic system. Certainly, the West allowed Vladimir Putin to provoke smaller humanitarian disasters elsewhere without sanction, but this time, the West is blameless.

Vladimir Putin is at fault here.

And, if traditional government funding is hard to find, the West must be innovative in seizing Putin-linked Russian assets to help address the Russian-caused humanitarian disaster that seems set to break upon Eastern Europe.