Vance—And Trump’s Influence—Square Off Against Crowded Field

Topline

Former President Donald Trump’s status as a Republican kingmaker in the 2022 midterms faces a major challenge Tuesday in Ohio, where Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance hopes the former president’s endorsement will be enough to propel him to victory in one of the most crowded and hotly contested GOP contests this year.

Former President Donald Trump looks on as J.D. Vance, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in … [+] Ohio, speaks during a rally at the Delaware County Fairgrounds on April 23, 2022, in Delaware, Ohio.

Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Key Facts

Polling suggests Vance has a slight lead going into Election Day, with his 26% support 3.5 percentage points clear of the field, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average.

He’s closely followed by fellow hard-right candidate Josh Mandel (22.5%), more moderate state Sen. Matt Dolan (21.5%) and investment banker Mike Gibbons (15%), who’s outspent all the other candidates.

Vance, a former Trump critic who has become an outspoken supporter, jumped from around 10% support to become the favorite after landing Trump’s coveted endorsement in mid-April, much to the chagrin of several other candidates.

The seat is open due to the retirement of Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

Crucial Quote

“This is not an easy endorsement for me to make because I like and respect some of the other candidates in the race,” Trump said in an April 15 statement, before adding: “I think J.D. is the most likely to take out the weak, but dangerous, Democrat opponent.”

Big Number

$66 million. That’s how much money has reportedly been spent in Ohio’s Senate contest. Vance has significant financial backing from billionaire tech mogul and Trump donor Peter Thiel, who’s bankrolling a group called Protect Ohio Values that has spent around $10 million on pro-Vance advertising.

Key Background

A win for Vance could serve to restore some confidence in the power of Trump’s endorsement after several of his other choices struggled to gain momentum. Trump in March notably withdrew his endorsement for Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) for Alabama’s open Senate seat amid slumping poll numbers, while his most high-profile endorsement, former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.), seems at risk of losing in a landslide to incumbent Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), despite Trump repeatedly attacking the governor for not trying to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump also fumbled on his initial endorsement in the open Pennsylvania Senate race, another closely watched contest. The ex-president endorsed Sean Parnell early in the campaign, but Parnell wound up dropping out after losing custody of his three children following abuse claims from his ex-wife. Trump has since endorsed television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, who’s trailing in polls to former Treasury Department official David McCormick. Many pundits are looking to the performance of Trump’s endorsements as a key indicator of the future of the party, and a sign of whether Trump still wields the power he’s long held over the GOP while figures like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) become more popular among the party’s conservative base.

Surprising Fact

Vance evolved from a Trump critic in 2016 to become a staunch supporter, ultimately saying he regretted his earlier comments about Trump. The ex-president recognized the change when making his endorsement, saying: “Like some others, J.D. Vance may have said some not-so-great things about me in the past, but he gets it now, and I have seen that in spades.”

Tangent

Many consider Vance’s 2016 memoir Hillbilly Elegy an explainer on how Trump won significant support from white, working-class voters who had traditionally supported Democrats. The book, in part, attributed the shift in Appalachia and Rust Belt areas to the belief among poorer white voters that social welfare programs eroded personal responsibility.