Bitcoin is making its second major attempt to reach escape velocity and move decisively into the speculative zone, according to a fresh update shared by Sina, co-founder at 21st Capital.
At the time of sharing the information, BTC was trading around $94,000, with a Quantile Model Risk Score of 56.6%, signaling a mid-stage bullish setup but not yet overheated conditions.
Sina highlights that in every previous Bitcoin cycle, there have typically been one or two failed breakout attempts before the final explosive move to new highs. Based on current behavior, BTC seems to be closely following that historic roadmap.
Valuation Parallels to Late 2020
According to Sina’s analysis, the current valuation phase mirrors November 2020, when Bitcoin was priced at $13,000. From there, Bitcoin famously surged to $61,000 in just a few months.
This historical comparison suggests Bitcoin may still have significant upside potential left in this cycle — though today’s macroeconomic environment presents some new challenges.
Macro Headwinds and Tailwinds
Unlike previous cycles, BTC today faces the dual pressures of restrictive monetary policy and recession fears. These factors could moderate the pace of Bitcoin’s ascent compared to earlier bull markets.
However, Sina notes that Federal Reserve policy is likely to shift toward easing as economic conditions evolve. As monetary tightening fades, risk assets like Bitcoin could stand to benefit from a renewed wave of liquidity.
Barring unexpected shocks from recession-related volatility, Sina believes the broader setup remains a strong tailwind for Bitcoin over the medium term.
2025: Setting the Stage for Bitcoin’s Next Breakout
By the end of 2025, Sina expects the market to have the perfect cocktail of conditions for a major Bitcoin rally:
- Looser monetary policy
- Tariff effects behind us
- Pro-growth fiscal and administrative policies (like potential tax cuts or deregulation)
- If these factors align, BTC could be poised to mirror the sharp late-stage surges seen in past bull runs.
Final Outlook
While short-term volatility is always a risk, the longer-term structure looks increasingly favorable.
As Sina from 21st Capital explains, Bitcoin’s second escape attempt is underway — and history suggests the breakthrough could be closer than many expect.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/another-bullish-indicator-for-bitcoin-valuation-reaches-key-inflection-point/