This week’s US Dollar (USD) rally is showing signs of exhaustion and movement among most of the G10 currencies is limited as we head into Thursday’s NA session, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
USD is consolidating recent gains
“The CNH is outperforming with a 0.3% gain as China returns from its Golden Week holiday and the broader tone is constructive as markets digest the latest FOMC minutes and dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams confirming his support for further easing. The CAD, AUD, CHF and MXN are trading flat vs. the USD while the EUR and GBP are trading somewhat defensively with marginal declines.”
“The NZD is a modest underperformer, along with NOK and SEK. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes offered a mixed message as policymakers balanced concerns about downside risks to the labor market and upside risks to inflation, ultimately leaning dovish to confirm the market’s expectations for additional rate cuts this year. Equity futures remain well supported and are hitting fresh record highs while the US 10Y yield shows signs of consolidation just above 4.10%.”
“Oil prices are quietly consolidating their recent OPEC-driven gains and copper is up nearly 2% as it extends its latest recovery. Gold is consolidating at record highs above $4000/oz and its rally is looking overbought with an RSI at 86. The US government shutdown continues to limit the release of key economic data, including Thursday’s jobless claims, and progress towards a deal remains limited. Thursday’s Fedspeak calendar includes welcoming remarks from Fed Chair Powell and appearances from Bowman, Goolsbee, Barr, Kashkari, and Daly.”