USD/CHF inches lower after registering 0.25% gains in the previous session, trading around 0.7810 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair may recover as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from fading expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts amid surging Oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict. Additionally, Fed officials continue to consider the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation remains above target.
The Iran war entered its seventh day, with Iran launching missiles and drones across the Gulf on Thursday, striking an oil refinery in Bahrain, while Israel continued airstrikes on Tehran, and the US suspended operations at its embassy in Kuwait.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that institutions are facing a crisis of trust. Goolsbee added that the federated structure of the central bank has worked well, adding that Fed independence is critically important to controlling inflation.
Traders await US labor data, including US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), where consensus expectations are around 59K for February, following January’s above-trend reading of 130K. Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.3% month-over-month in January, after a flat reading in the previous month.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) may strengthen against the US Dollar on safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice-President Antoine Martin reiterated the central bank’s readiness to intervene to prevent excessive CHF appreciation.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.