USD/CAD holds 1.40 ahead of CPI – BBH

USD/CAD remains anchored above 1.4000 as markets await Canada’s October CPI, expected to cool to 2.1% year-on-year. A softer inflation print would align with the Bank of Canada’s outlook and support current rate expectations, limiting further downside for the Canadian Dollar (USD), BBH FX analysts report.

Canada inflation seen easing, CAD downside limited

“USD/CAD is holding above key support at 1.4000. Canada’s October CPI print is up next (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York). Headline CPI is seen easing to 2.1% y/y (BOC Q4 forecast: 2.0%) vs. 2.4% in September reflecting lower energy prices. Core CPI (average of trim and median CPI) is expected at 3% y/y (BOC Q4 forecast: 2.9%) vs. 3.15% in September.”

“If so, Canada’s inflation backdrop data would support market pricing for steady rates at 2.25% over the next 12 months and rate hikes in the next two years. That limits CAD downside.”