The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as traders respond to Canada’s Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebound. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3984, extending losses for a fourth consecutive day as broad Greenback weakness keeps the pair under sustained downside pressure.
Statistics Canada reported that the economy expanded modestly in Q3, with September GDP rising 0.2% MoM, in line with expectations, after August was revised to -0.1% from -0.3%. Real GDP increased 0.6% in the third quarter, reversing the previous quarter’s -0.5% contraction, while the annualized growth rate accelerated to 2.6%, well above the 0.5% consensus and a sharp improvement from -1.8% in Q2.
The details of the report showed that Canada’s Q3 rebound was driven mainly by trade, with exports rising 0.2% while imports fell 2.2%, providing a strong positive lift to growth. Domestic demand weakened as household consumption declined, as vehicle purchases fell 2.3%, and government spending dropped 0.4%.
Looking ahead, the GDP figures are unlikely to significantly alter expectations for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) December 10 interest rate decision. At its October meeting, the BoC cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25% and signaled that this move could mark the end of the easing cycle, noting that the current level is “about right” as long as inflation and economic activity evolve in line with its projections.
In contrast, traders are increasingly pricing in a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut next month, following dovish-leaning remarks from key policymakers earlier in the week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now assigning roughly an 85% probability to a 25 bps rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting.
Overall, with the BoC expected to hold rates steady in December while the Fed appears poised to ease, the US Dollar is likely to stay on the back foot, keeping the broader tone for USD/CAD tilted lower.