USD/CAD declines to 1.3535 and consolidates below the 20-day SMA

• USD/CAD tallies a four-day losing streak, trading at 1.3545. 
• Higher energy prices contributed to an acceleration of the US CPI in August.
• Fed tightening expectations remain steady.
• Higher Oil prices favour the CAD.

The USD/CAD continued its downward path on Wednesday, tallied a more than 1% decline in the last four days, and traded at the 1.3585 – 1.3520 range. On the USD side, the Greenback is holding its foot after the release of inflation figures as investors are still placing bets on one last hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2023. On the other hand, the CAD trades strong, mainly driven by higher Oil prices that rose to highs since November on Tuesday.

On the data front, the US Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.7%, higher than the previous 3.2% and the expected figure of 3.6%, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that an increase in energy prices drove the rise. On a positive note, the sticky Core measure eased to 4.3% from its previous reading of 4.7%, matching the expectations.

All eyes are now on Thursday’s Produce Price Index (PPI) figures from the US, which is expected to accelerate to 1.2% YoY from its previous 0.8%. Retail sales from the same month will also be closely watched. As for now, the CME FedWatch tool indicates the case of one last 25 basis point hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains strong as investors discount nearly 40% odds of possibilities. In line with that, hawkish bets may cushion the USD’s losses. 

USD/CAD Levels to watch 

 Analysing the daily chart, the technical outlook for the USD/CAD remains neutral to bearish as the bears continue to show signs of gaining ground. With a negative slope below its midline, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals a bearish sentiment, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) histogram shows increasing red bars.

 Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3500, 1.3490.

 Resistance levels: 1.3576 (20-day SMA), 1.3600, 1.3630.

USD/CAD Daily Chart