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The rise in rates has sent bond prices lower. Let us look at the 10-year note prospects from a cycles standpoint.
Currently, the cycles that are most active are 363, 242, and 89 days. The combination of this trio is plotted below. Note that the cycle composite coincided with the August high. The cycle bottoms at the end of September. The cycle projects a rally in October and another decline into December.
Three-Cycle Note Composite
This cycle projects lower prices.
Price has confirmed this bearish scenario. Note that the July price bar went to a new high intra-month but then closed at a lower low, a bearish hook sell signal. The 111-112 level is the minimum expectation.
Monthly Note Price
This sell signal confirms the bearish outlook.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/09/07/us-notes-are-moving-much-lower/