Unknown Status Of Kawhi Leonard Puts Clippers In Purgatory

Currently at 10-7, the Los Angeles Clippers are going through somewhat of a pedestrian season, which for the level of expectation going into the 2022-2023 campaign is not a good thing.

Kawhi Leonard, who missed all of last year to an ACL injury, has only participated in four games this season, producing modest numbers of 10.5 points and 4.8 rebounds as he gets his body back to the normalcy of an NBA season.

Even with the return of Leonard, however, it’s fair to wonder if the Clippers are still considered one of the favorites to represent the Western Conference in the Finals next June.

Over the past few years, the Clippers cornered the market on two-way wing players, hoping to create one of the most interchangeable systems in the entire league. While that hasn’t yet materialized, the idea itself was never a bad one. There’s valid strategy benefits in having multiple players capable of playing multiple positions, allowing the Clippers to easily switch between big and small ball on offense, and playing a seamless switching-heavy defense on the other end of the floor.

In practice, it’s been slightly more complicated.

With so many forwards on the roster, head coach Ty Lue has been forced to limited the minutes on a number of these acquired players. Nicolas Batum and Robert Covington, two players who on most teams would receive 20-25 minutes rather easily, are currently playing 17.9 and 13.1 minutes respectively, a far cry from where they used to be.

Covington has played just 8.9 minutes in the past five games he’s received court time, and the veteran forward has struggled finding stable production under his unstable minutes distribution. The 31-year-old is hitting just 36.7% of his shots, and is turning the ball over at a large rate for someone who is almost exclusively used as a spot-up shooter, displaying a TOV% of 17.1 on the year.

Granted, it’s a small sample size as he’s played just 131 minutes on the season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on, as Covington does look off in his new role of not being used as much. Remember, Covington has started in 460 of his 547 career games. He’s used to playing big, crucial minutes.

As for star forward Paul George, he’s been tasked with the responsibility of being the team’s leading shot-taker, just like last year. George has never been a Tier 1 superstar, but has done an overall admirable job of filling in as a first option over the years. At 32, however, you have to wonder how many years he has left before a decline in play begins to hang over him.

On the good side of things, George has shown improved efficiency this season as a result of trimming down his mid-range tendencies from his shot profile. He’s also seen a rise in his free throw rate, three-point rate, and using more of his opportunities to get to the rim. The All-Star sits at 23.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game.

As a collective team, the Clippers have quite the challenge ahead of them if they aspire to becoming NBA champions anytime soon. Their offense ranks dead-last in the league, and second-to-last in offensive rebounding percentage. This hurts their volume of shots through the course of a game, disallowing them a chance at producing second chance points. Opponents are taking seven more shots per game than the Clippers, a major disadvantage.

The team also ranks last in hanging onto the ball, and that’s despite bringing in former All-Star John Wall to strengthen the point guard spot.

So, what’s the next step for the Clippers, given their aspirations?

It might be time to consider to move off from a few pieces. Sparingly using Covington is a luxury they can’t afford, and they could use more size inside, as Ivica Zubac and Moses Brown are their only two true big men.

Furthermore, they need to find a way to speed up an offense that routinely looks slow and uninspired. They rank 22nd in pace, and opponents are well aware that they needn’t fear them in transition, as that’s not a common occurrence. Here it would behoove them to unleash Norman Powell a bit more. Not only is Powell one of the better scorers the NBA has to offer, but he’s a high volume three-point shooter. Playing him just 24.9 minutes per game seems wasteful.

Finally, they need to know what version of Leonard they’ll be getting in the long run. If he’s to be in and out of the lineup all year, that practically makes any attempt at the Finals pointless.

It might read as an oversimplification that their next step comes down to the health of their best player, but it’s absolutely crucial for the future of the entire franchise. Not just for this year, but the long-term.

If Leonard isn’t going to become the player he used to be, or if the need for load management is going to increase further, the Clippers will have to ask themselves some pretty big questions.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.