Unemployment Rate Holds At 4.2%

Topline

The labor market showed signs of steadiness in April as the U.S. added more jobs than expected, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Friday morning, as the economy walks the recession tightrope.

Goldman Sachs forecasts unemployment will spike to 4.7% by year’s end, the highest level since … More September 2021.

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Key Facts

The U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs from March to April, the Labor Department said.

Economists expected job growth of 133,000, according to median forecasts compiled by Dow Jones.

The unemployment rate was 4.2% last month, meeting projections of 4.2%, where it stood last month.

But the Labor Department revised down February and March job growth by 15,000 and 43,000, respectively, equating to 58,000 fewer positions added than previously reported.

“Employment strong,” President Donald Trump celebrated in a post to his Truth Social platform following the release.

Crucial Quote

“No signs of tariff stress in the labor market yet—strong hiring and stable wages,” Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, wrote in emailed comments.

Big Number

$36.06. That was the average hourly earnings for non-farm American workers in April, a new record. Wages grew 3.8% year-over-year, outpacing both of the most commonly cited measures of inflation, a sign of strength for consumers’ spending power.

Key Background

A handful of companies have announced layoffs tied to tariffs, including automakers General Motors and Stellantis, while delivery giant UPS said this week it expects to cut 20,000 positions this year. There were about 603,000 announced layoffs through 2025’s first five months, a year-over-year increase of 87%, according to job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Challenger traces about 48% of 2025’s job cuts to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the Elon Musk-led White House division reshaping the federal government. Economists largely view whether the U.S. enters a recession this year as a tossup. Gross domestic product, the most comprehensive measure of economic activity, registered its worst reading since early 2022 during the first quarter, shrinking 0.3%.

What To Watch For

Whether recession angst results in labor market deterioration. Goldman Sachs forecasts the unemployment rate will end 2025 at 4.7%. That would be the highest jobless rate since September 2021. Excluding the 2020-21 spike, the unemployment rate had not been 4.7% or higher since January 2017, the first month of Trump’s initial stint in the Oval Office.