Ukrainian Troops Gain Ground In The South, Lose Ground In The East. Is The Trade Worth It?

The Ukrainian army is closing in on Russian-occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine. Of course, closing in isn’t the same as liberating it.

Infrared satellite imagery from Saturday indicates intensive fires burning in Kyselivka, a suburb of Kherson just nine miles northwest of Kherson’s airport—and six miles from Kherson itself.

The fires are evidence of major fighting in—or, at least, major shelling—in a key suburb as Ukrainian troops slowly advance along the M14 highway toward Kherson, which with its pre-war population of 300,000 is the biggest and arguably most important Ukrainian city under Russian occupation.

But the same conditions that are helping Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive eventually could threaten it as Russia’s wider war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth month. The Ukrainians have been able to advance toward Kherson because the Russians have concentrated their best troops around the city of Severodonetsk in eastern’s Ukraine’s Donbas region.

For Kyiv, the Russian assault on Severodonetsk—which slowly has been gaining ground—is an opportunity to exploit gaps in Russian defenses elsewhere in Ukraine. But there’s a catch. Every soldier Ukraine loses in the east is a soldier who can’t help to liberate Kherson.

The question for Ukraine’s leaders: is maybe freeing Kherson worth probably losing Severodonetsk? It’s a question they so far seem to have avoided answering by dividing their forces between the two fronts—just enough troops to march on Kherson, just enough troops to avoid a rapid, total collapse in Severodonetsk.

Russian leaders grapple with the same dilemma, of course. They, too, seem to want it both ways. At the same time the Kremlin mostly remains focused on capturing Severodonetsk and broadening its eight-year occupation of much of Donbas, there are hints the Russians are beginning to panic over Kherson—and are shifting some forces south in the hope of slowing the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

It’s an open question which side is striking the right balance.

The battle for Severodonetsk has raged for two months, ever since the Russian army—having lost as many as 15,000 troops killed since late February—pulled its battered battalions from northern Ukraine. Instead of trying to sustain three separate offensives in northern, eastern and southern Ukraine, the Kremlin refocused its attention on the east.

And not even all of the east. Rather, mostly just Severodonetsk, the last free city on the eastern bank of the highly-defensible Donets River. Capturing the industrial city with its pre-war population of 100,000 would support the Kremlin’s new narrative—that the whole wider war really was just an effort to consolidate Russian influence over those portions of eastern Ukraine that, once upon a time, were somewhat pro-Russian.

Even with their massive advantages in artillery and air power, the Russians failed to encircle Severodonetsk and its twin city on the opposite bank of the Donets River, Lysychansk. But they steadily advanced into Severodonetsk itself, first capturing the residential outskirts before besieging the main Ukrainian defensive positions in the Azot chemical plant in the city’s north.

By mid-June, the Ukrainians were reporting losing hundreds of soldiers a day in the east, counting both killed and wounded. No doubt Russian losses are similar if not greater. The Donetsk People’s Republic, one of two Russian-backed separatist regimes in Donbas, reported losing more than half of its 20,000-person army in the first 100 days fighting alongside the Russians.

But Ukraine’s heavy losses didn’t prevent it mustering forces for an assault toward Kherson. In late May, Ukrainian formations, apparently led by the 28th Mechanized Brigade and supported by American-made M-777 howitzers, fought their way across the Inhulets River, a natural barrier stiffening Russian defenses northeast of Kherson.

From their Inhulets lodgment, Ukrainian troops riding in T-64 tanks and BMP fighting vehicles advanced on the town of Davydiv Brid, 40 miles northeast of Kherson. Simultaneously, a separate Ukrainian force attacked from farther west.

That more-westerly effort appears to have made quick gains, if the satellite imagery is any indication. The fires in Kyselivka, as well as in open fields surrounding the Kherson airport, indicate that Kyiv’s troops might soon bring the Russian garrison in Kherson itself within range of rockets, cannons and grenade-dropping drones.

It’s safe to assume the Ukrainians won’t do what the Russians typically do when they collide with an entrenched garrison in an urban setting—and simply fire artillery and drop bombs until the surrounding city is nothing but ruins. Kyiv aims to liberate Kherson, not demolish it.

If and when the Ukrainians reach Kherson, expect close infantry battles in the city itself as well as wider efforts by mechanized forces to surround the city and cut off the garrison’s supply lines—starving it so that destroying it is unnecessary.

The Russians are bracing for the coming battle. There are reports of Russian reinforcements arriving around occupied Melitopol, 100 miles east of Kherson along the M14 highway.

Developments in the east could complicate whatever happens in the south. It’s possible—likely, even—that Severodonetsk will fall. The Russians have destroyed all three bridges connecting the city to neighboring Lysychansk. Fighting is raging in Toshkivka, a town six miles south of Lysychansk, as the Russians try once again to encircle Ukrainian forces in the area.

A Ukrainian collapse in Donbas could free up more Russian forces for the fight in the south. Of course, the Ukrainians in the south also could benefit if Kyiv chooses to trade space for time in the east and orders its troops to withdraw from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

There’s a theory among some observers that Ukrainian leaders’ insistence on fighting for every block in Donbas is all part of the plan for the wider war. Every yard the Russian army advances in and around Severodonetsk costs it people, equipment and morale it can’t easily replace. Or so the theory goes.

If that theory holds—and that’s a big if—then Ukraine wins in Donbas even if it loses Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Because the Donbas fight will have distracted the Russians long enough for the Ukrainians to liberate Kherson.

The theory hinges on a big assumption, however—that the Ukrainians will actually liberate Kherson. It’s not enough to cross the Inhulets River, travel a few miles along the M14 and bombard Kyselivka.

They’ve got to retake the city. And possibly soon, if they’re counting on Severodonetsk to keep the Russians occupied.