Ukrainian Troops Are Pushing Back The Russians In The South

Ukrainian troops appear to be advancing toward Russian-occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine. Their progress overall is slow, but seemingly real.

But it comes at a price for Kyiv’s wider war effort.

The Ukrainian government seems to be betting its outnumbered forces in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region can hang on despite nonstop Russian attacks. If the eastern brigades teeter, Kyiv might have no choice but to strip forces from the southern front in order to reinforce Donbas.

The Russian army seized Kherson in late March after rolling north from occupied Crimea. A port city with a pre-war population of 300,000 Kherson is one of Moscow’s biggest prizes yet as the war grinds into its fourth month.

It’s not for no reason that the Kremlin has laid plans to stage a faux “referendum” in the city aimed at legitimizing a possible formal annexation. Occupation officials also have pushed the Russian ruble as the local currency.

Kyiv wants Kherson back. To that end, last month Ukrainian formations, apparently led by the 28th Mechanized Brigade and supported by American-made M-777 howitzers, fought their way across the Inhulets River, a natural barrier stiffening Russian defenses northeast of Kherson.

From the Inhulets lodgment, Ukrainian troops riding in T-64 tanks and BMP fighting vehicles have attacked toward the town of Davydiv Brid, 40 miles from Kherson. The town, possibly occupied by the Russian army’s 255th Motor Rifle Regiment, reportedly has changed hands several times.

“It’s close fighting, and in some cases very intimate,” John Kirby, the U.S. Defense Department’s top spokesperson, told reporters on May 27. “Like in Kherson, or around Kherson, between Kherson and Mykolaiv, you’ve got Ukrainian and Russian forces that are very, very close.”

To bolster their troops in the south, the Russians have sent in old T-62 tanks they pulled out of long-term storage. But they’re not shifting their best units from the east. “While Russia is concentrating its offensive on the central Donbas sector, it has remained on the defensive on its flanks,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated on June 8.

Russia’s focus on Donbas is an opportunity for Ukraine. While the fighting continued around Davydiv Brid last week, the Ukrainian army launched a second counteroffensive along the line of contact between Kherson and the free city of Mykolaiv, west of the Inhulets lodgment.

That second counteroffensive made swift progress as Ukrainian troops advanced several miles by Tuesday, officials in Kyiv claimed. It’s possible, though difficult to confirm, that the leading Ukrainian troops are just 11 miles from Kherson.

“Everyone focusing on the Donbas: don’t,” tweeted Mike Martin, a fellow with the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. “That’s not the play. The play is for the much for [sic] strategically important Kherson.”

While that may be true, the fighting in Donbas clearly is much costlier for both sides than the fighting in the south. Ukrainian officials claim as many as 100 Ukrainian soldiers are dying every day in the east amid unrelenting Russian bombardment. That rate of loss probably isn’t sustainable for Ukraine.

So while the Ukrainians have their sights set on Kherson, any effort to liberate the city ultimately could fail for a want of manpower. Manpower that the battle for Donbas is consuming at an alarming rate.