Ukrainian Military Is Targeting Russian Fuel Supply Lines As Winter Approaches

The lifeblood of any modern army is diesel fuel. Diesel fuel is used in most military vehicles as well as in the generators that provide electricity to command posts and living facilities. Accordingly, the Russian military has required a steady flow of diesel flow to their units in Ukraine to maintain combat effectiveness. With winter approaching, the Ukrainian military appears to be making a concerted effort to cut off that flow of fuel.

The Russian forces in Ukraine require a tremendous amount of diesel fuel. Modern tanks consume diesel fuel at rates of less than 1 mile per gallon. Even when the vehicles are stationary, their engines remain running to provide power to targeting equipment, radios, and other electronics. Moreover, a massive amount of diesel fuel is necessary for generators, which provide electricity to all the electronics used by any modern army. A single Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) carries approximately 10,000 gallons of fuel for resupply in its tanker trucks; this fuel is expected to support one day of combat operations. Russian logistics channels must supply fuel to over 100 BTGs in addition to a number of paramilitary groups.

The fuel issues will soon be complicated by the eastern European winter. The demand for fuel will increase as it is used in generators to provide electricity for heating in addition to being burned directly in heaters. Meanwhile, heavy snow and ice can shut down the resupply routes.

Thus far in the war, Russian forces have struggled with securing their fuel supply lines. Fuel shortages have been blamed for a number of issues including the large number of abandoned and captured Russian vehicles. Doctrinally, the Russian military is defensive in nature; as such, it is not structured to support sustained forward operations. Further, when the Russians have established forward fuel depots, they were quickly destroyed by Ukrainian artillery and drones. As a consequence, the Russians have been required to truck fuel into Ukraine from Russia.

The Ukrainians have exploited this vulnerability in the Russian forces by targeting Russian fuel resupply vehicles. To date, the Russians have lost 239 fuel tankers, primarily Ural 4320 and KamAZ 6×6 tankers. This is a large number of fuel tankers, given that each Battalion Tactical Group only has five tankers. They have also destroyed several trains and civilian tankers that were carrying fuel to the front. Even one of the recent drone strikes launched into Russia targeted a fuel depot.

Some of the fiercest fighting currently involves securing cities along major supply routes. For example, the Russian Army has been trying to take Bakhmut, a key transportation node in the Donetsk Oblast, since early August. Taking Bakhmut would allow the Russians to control a critical road junction that will allow them access through the Donetsk Oblast. However, the Ukrainians have put a stiff defense against the Russians and are expected to hold Bakhmut at least through the winter.

Elsewhere, the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Luhansk Region has been focused on taking back the cities of Svatove and Kreminna. These cities are both key transportation nodes with major Russian resupply routes running through them according to the Institute for the Study of War. If the Ukrainians can capture these cities, the Russians will be limited in their ability to resupply Russian and paramilitary units in the Luhansk Region.

These efforts from the Ukrainians to deny fuel resupply to the Russian military will have large consequences on the war. Without a steady supply of diesel fuel, the Russian military will not be combat effective, since they cannot maneuver their vehicles on the battlefield. The Russian forces will be forced to take a purely defensive posture, effectively halting their forward movements. Even in a defensive posture, the Russians will require a steady supply of fuel, albeit less. Without fuel, the units will be quickly overrun by the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

More importantly, without fuel, Russian soldiers will freeze. With large portions of Ukraine without power, Russian forces need diesel fuel for their generators and heaters. Without a reliable supply of fuel, Russian forces will not be able to keep their soldiers warm. Hypothermia is not the only issue; diseases will spread through the force as well. Freezing, sick soldiers have historically resulted in low morale and high desertion.

The Ukrainians will likely be successful in their efforts to diminish the Russian ability to refuel their forces. In turn, this will reduce the combat effectiveness and morale of the Russian forces. Although this will not end the war, this move will allow the Ukrainian counteroffensive to make significant gains this winter. Regardless of the overall outcome, it will probably be a cold, chaotic, and unproductive winter for the Russian forces.