Ukrainian Drone Strike Videos Are Extremely Bad News For Russia

Like many commentators I was surprised (and heartened) to see a video of a drone strike carried out by Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drones against a Russian supply convoy. Unlike some such videos this one seems to be genuine according to Rob Lee, senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The Ukrainian Air Force has since confirmed it has carried out such  attacks; another video can be seen here. This simply could not happen if Russia was conducting its military operations properly, and points to a whole series of failings in the Russian war machine.

To rewind slightly: the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 – ‘Tactical Block 2’ — is approximately equivalent to the old U.S. Predator drone. It has a wingspan of 39 feet and a 105-hp engine giving it a cruising speed of around 80 mph, so it could easily be outflown by WW1 fighters. It is highly affordable — less than a tenth the cost of a frontline jet — and like the Predator before it, the TB2 is intended to operate in uncontested airspace, using its 27-hour endurance to patrol and gather intelligence for an extended period. It carries up to four Turkish-made Roketsan MAM laser-guided missiles. At 50 lbs, these are half the size of the U.S. Hellfire, but lethal against light armored vehicles from several miles away.

The TB2 proved itself in the strike role in Libya and Syria, where it destroyed numerous Russian-made vehicles. Significantly, these included Pantsir mobile anti-aircraft systems, armed with a mix of guns and missiles, which are supposed to shoot down exactly this sort of tactical threat.

However, it was in the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict that the TB2 really distinguished itself, knocking out large numbers of Armenia’s Russian-made tanks and other vehicles. This success was greatly aided by the sheer incompetence of the defenders: attack videos show vehicles were not dispersed, dug in or camouflaged, and made themselves easy targets for air attack.

The conclusion then was that while the TB2 and similar were useful against unsophisticated opponents, they would be ineffective against a modern, well-trained army. Some hailed Ukraine’s purchase of Bayraktar drones as a powerful weapon against Russia, but this seemed unlikely for several reasons.

Firstly, Russia has a massive advantage in long-range fires like the Iskander ballistic missile as well as overwhelming air power and was expected to destroy the Ukrainian air force in the ground on the first day, including drones like the TB2.

Secondly, any TB2s which survived this initial onslaught should not have been able to fly in airspace dominated by Russian fighters. The TB2 has no air-to-air armament, the pilot has a limited view of the world, and at 80 mph it is easy meat for a jet fighter toting supersonic missiles.

Thirdly, Russia has an advanced, layered air defence system with networked radar and other sensors and an array of weapons from portable surface-to-air missiles and mobile artillery up to the much-feared S-400, claimed to be able to shoot down stealth fighters.

And finally, the Bayraktar TB2, like most drones, is reliant on a radio link between drone and operator. Russia, which prides ittelf on its ‘radioelectronic warfare’ capabilities and has some of the best jamming systems in the world, should be able to prevent Ukrainian drones from functioning.

It seemed then, that Russia was ready for Ukraine’s drone force and would deal with it easily. This turned out not to be the case. While some videos of TB2 in action in Ukraine are definitely fakes – one is from Syria from 2020 – some appear to be legitimate.

Such strikes show that Russia has failed to destroy Ukraine’s air capability, failed to take control of the skies, failed to operate an effective air defense, and cannot jam effectively. Add to that the fact that the trucks targeted are packed together and not spaced out to provide some level of protection, showing zero tactical sense.

This series of failures raises real questions about Russian military’s basic competence levels. It is like a military sniper being stalked and shot on the behind  by a ten-year-old with an air rifle : the damage is not great, but it is humiliating and exposes important failings.

If Bayraktar TB2s can carry out such strikes with impunity as the videos suggest, they could be a threat to Russian supply lines. Russian forces are already reportedly low on fuel, and truck convoys are far more vulnerable than military vehicles.

“Too soon to tell how significant they’ll be in this war, “ notes Lee in a Tweet. “But they appear to be having an effect so far.”

Ukraine is already capitalizing on the drone’s successes and using them to taunt and menace the invaders. The success of these cheap but effective low-tech drones may come to be a powerful symbol of how Russia’s invasion went wrong.