Ukraine’s Guns Are In Range Of Izium. That’s Bad News For Russia.

Ukrainian gunners shelled a Russian air-defense system in eastern Ukraine probably sometime in the past couple of days.

That itself isn’t all that noteworthy. Ukraine’s forces have destroyed dozens of Russian air-defenses since Russia widened its war on Ukraine in late February.

What’s important is where the shelling took place: just three miles northwest of Russian-occupied Izium, 60 miles southeast of Kkarkiv in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Ukraine’s best medium artillery, its new American-made M777s, can lob 100-pound shells around 19 miles. That means Ukrainian forces have staged artillery no farther than 22 miles from Izium—and are blasting away.

Izium until recently was the locus of Russia’s faltering offensive in Donbas. The dozen or so Russian battalions in the area—15 percent of Russia’s entire army in Ukraine—in recent weeks pushed through Izium then west a few miles along the P79 highway.

The Ukrainian army’s 81st Air Mobile Brigade fought a tactical retreat along the P79, extracting a heavy toll on the Russians for every mile they advanced. The result, however, was a Russian penetration several miles into Ukrainian-held territory south of Kharkiv, where Kyiv’s troops now are mopping up.

The Izium salient represents a risk—to both sides. If the Russians can deepen and strengthen the salient, they might encircle the Ukrainian brigades south of Izium in Severodonetsk and nearby communities. Some of the best and most experienced Ukrainian units are in the Severodonetsk pocket. Surrounding and destroying them could tilt the war in Russia’s favor, at least in short term.

But there’s risk to the Russians, too. The Izium salient is vulnerable at its flanks, especially its northern flank. As Ukraine’s 92nd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades wrap up their operations around Kharkiv, they’ve shifted south to join the fight around Izium. If Ukrainian troops west and south of Izium can draw out the Russian battalions, the 93rd in particular is in a position to cut across the Russians’ supply lines and isolate the front-line troops.

That the Ukrainians now are within artillery range of Izium is a strong indicator that the salient indeed represents a greater danger to the Russians than it does to the Ukrainians. Russia already has lost as much as a third of its army in Ukraine; a defeat in Izium could add to that loss—a lot.

The Kremlin seems to appreciate the danger. There are hints the Izium salient no longer is the focus on Russia’s efforts in Donbas—and that Russian troops are repositioning south to join the fight around Lyman, a settlement that sits astride some important roads and railways and currently is under Ukrainian control.

Russian units including the T-72-equipped 90th Guards Tank Division in the past week have been advancing north and south of Lyman, clearly aiming to surround the town’s Ukrainian defenders, potentially including elements of the 57th Motorized Brigade. The Russians are trying to do around Lyman what the Ukrainians are threatening to do farther north around Izium—get behind an enemy force and cut it off.

But don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. In late February, Moscow’s war aims were maximalist. It intended to capture Kyiv, decapitate the Ukrainian government and seize both Donbas and the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast, cutting off the country from the sea.

Three months later, Moscow’s aims are minimalist. Kyiv is safe, Ukraine’s main port Odesa is safe and the only place Russia stands any chance of “winning” anything is in Donbas. And only parts of Donbas.