Ukraine’s Drone Boats Are Winning The Black Sea Naval War

An apparent Ukrainian drone-boat strike on Novorossiysk, a hundred miles from Russian-occupied Crimea in southern Russia, should sound the alarm in Sevastopol, the Crimean headquarters of the Russian navy’s beleaguered Black Sea Fleet.

A nighttime explosion in Novorossiysk’s harbor seems to indicate that the city is the latest target of the Ukrainian navy’s growing fleet of explosives-laden drone boats.

The 18-foot, radio-controlled boats apparently have been prowling the Black Sea for months. A swarm of the 50-mile-per-hour robotic vessels assaulted the main Black Sea Fleet anchorage back in October, blowing up at least one auxiliary vessel and possibly damaging the fleet’s flagship, the 409-foot frigate Makarov.

The unmanned surface vessels signal a sea change in Ukrainian naval strategy. When Russia widened its war in Ukraine starting in late February, the Ukrainian navy still hoped to counter the 30-ship Black Sea Fleet with a handful of big ships of its own—in particular, the gun-armed frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy.

But that was a fantasy. One the Russian fleet quickly dashed when it sank most of the Ukrainian fleet’s smaller vessels and captured its anchorage in the historic city of Mariupol.

Eyeing approaching Russian forces, Hetman Sahaydachniy’s crew scuttled their vessel in the port of Odesa, west of Mariupol. Hetman Sahaydachniy’s sinking left the Ukrainian navy with one large, mostly unarmed ship—the landing vessel Yuri Olefirenko—plus missile-armed TB-2 unmanned aerial vehicles and a solitary ground battery firing locally-produced, 170-mile-range Neptune anti-ship missiles.

The TB-2s and Neptunes heralded a new kind of fleet. One without big ships, but lots of drones and missiles. The TB-2s and Neptune battery in April worked together to sink the Back sea Fleet flagship, the cruiser Moskva.

The TB-2 and missile crews then turned their attention to Russian-occupied Snake Island in the western Black Sea, blowing up Russian equipment on the island and sinking boats and auxiliary vessels trying to resupply the island garrison.

While the Ukrainians gradually liberated Snake Island, their fleet transformed. The Ukrainian navy got Harpoon anti-ship missiles from Denmark and the United States. And a class of exploding, robotic speedboats, made in Ukraine and steered via radio by crews safely inside free Ukraine, filled the gap left by the scuttled frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy.

The first sign the Ukrainians were acquiring drone boats came in September, when one of the robotic craft washed ashore near Sevastopol.

A month later, identical drone boats struck the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s home port of Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea. Fragmentary videos painted a confusing picture. Near-misses. Explosions.

It’s possible the drone boats struck the new Black Sea Fleet flagship Makarov. It also is possible the Russians prevented a catastrophic strike. In either case, it was clear that the Black Sea Fleet no longer was safe in the western Black Sea, even while in port.

The Ukrainian navy after the Sevastopol assault got a lot less shy about its new drone boats. It published a loving video detailing the production process. And it welcomed an effort by the citizens of Lithuania to crowdfund the acquisition of an extra drone.

The publicity signaled new confidence. And on Friday, something exploded in Novorossiysk. The apparent latest victim of Ukraine’s new navy. A drone navy.

A drone navy that, along with shore-based missile batteries, is more than a match for the Russian navy with its big, expensive—and manpower-intensive—old-fashioned warships.