Ukraine May Get U.S. MQ-9 Reaper Strike Drones

Ukraine is in talks to purchase American-made heavy attack drones that could shift the balance of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Ukrainian officials met in Washington last week with General Atomics, the California-based manufacturer of military drones, including the MQ-9 Reaper, the U.S. Air Force’s primary reconnaissance and strike UAV. Though the U.S. government would have to approve any sale, it is unlikely that such talks between Ukraine and a U.S. defense contractor would have happened without a green light from the Biden administration.

“We have aircraft available now for immediate transfer,” General Atomics spokesman C. Mark Brinkley told me. “With support from the U.S. government, those aircraft could be in the hands of Ukrainian military pilots in a matter of days.”

General Atomics already has experience in quickly delivering MQ-9s to other nations. “In the past, we worked with the U.S. government to send MQ-9 Reapers to a partner nation in less than 30 days,” said Brinkley. “The logistics footprint could be minimal, also much less than what people associate with American UAS logistics footprints.”

The Biden administration is already planning to supply Ukraine with more advanced arms, according to the Washington Post. Concerned that heavy weapons, such as tanks and jet fighters, would escalate the conflict, the U.S. has carefully provided Ukraine with smaller weapons, such as man-portable Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, and even small 5-pound Switchblade “kamikaze drones.”

The MQ-9 would be a far different beast. While General Atomics did not mention specific models that it might sell, the most likely candidate would be the Reaper, which along with the earlier MQ-1 Predator has been the backbone of U.S. military drone operations for more than 20 years.

The MQ-9 could radically transform the war, where drones have emerged as one of Ukraine’s most devastating weapons against Russian armored columns. The unexpected star of Ukraine’s drone fleet has been the Turkish-made TB-2 Bayraktar.

Equipped with laser-guided missiles, the TB-2 – of which Ukraine is believed to have around 20 — has destroyed hundreds of Russian tanks, artillery pieces and anti-aircraft weapons. Despite considerable Russian investment in air defense, Russia’s fighters and anti-aircraft weapons have proven surprisingly ineffective against Ukrainian UAVs, including hobby drones modified into surveillance and attack craft.

But comparing the TB-2 to an MQ-9 is like comparing a Humvee to a passenger sedan. The MQ-9 has a wingspan of 66 feet compared to 39 feet for the TB-2. The MQ-9 weighs in at about 11,000 pounds fully loaded with fuel and weapons, compared to 1,400 pounds for the TB-2. The Reaper is twice as fast, with a speed of about 300 miles per hour versus about 135 miles per hour for the TB-2.

Perhaps most significant is the MQ-9’s vastly superior range: up to 1,200 miles for the base model and 1,600 miles for the ER (extended range) version, compared to just 93 miles for the TB-2. The Turkish drone would have to operate fairly close to the front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine, rendering it more vulnerable to Russian air and missile strikes on airfields. But the MQ-9 has the range to operate from safer bases in eastern Ukraine: given that the distance from the eastern Ukrainian city of Lviv to Kiev in the west is 291 miles – and Lviv to the southern port of Odessa is 800 miles – the extra reach of the Reaper could be crucial to preserving Ukraine’s drone fleet from Russian retaliation. Indeed, the MQ-9 would have the range to strike deep into Russia, and as far as Moscow.

General Atomics maintains that Ukraine would benefit from more sophisticated American drones. “They would greatly expand the ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] capacity of the entire military force and provide highly lethal strike capabilities not afforded by smaller combat UAVs,” Brinkley said.

But the TB-2 has one major advantage over the MQ-9: it’s much cheaper. A TB-2 costs $1 million to $2 million, while an MQ-9 has been estimated to cost up to $32 million apiece (a 2020 sale of four MQ-9Bs to Taiwan, plus ground stations, spare parts and training, was valued at $600 million). This is a big draw for smaller nations such as Azerbaijan, which used the TB-2 to decimate Armenian armor in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. But if the U.S. is willing to pick the tab, the MQ-9 does offer much greater capabilities to Ukraine.

However, there are obstacles to any Ukrainian MQ-9 purchase. The most obvious is training and familiarization: the Ukrainian military is accustomed to operating Russian (actually Soviet-era) equipment rather than Western designs, and the U.S. Air Force requires a year of training for UAV pilots.

However, General Atomics is confident that it could quickly train Ukrainian crews. “Military pilots already familiar with UAV operations could be trained to fly our aircraft quickly,” Brinkley said.

“Every public estimate currently being offered by observers regarding logistics footprints and training timelines is based on the way the U.S. military employs the aircraft under best case scenarios. In a crisis such as this, rapid training and deployment efforts could radically reduce those estimates and footprints.”

“Ukraine has skilled military pilots familiar with UAV operations who are motivated to defend and protect their homes,” Brinkley added. “We are not starting from scratch.”

Another question is survivability. While Russian air defenses have proven remarkably ineffective against drones, history teaches that armies eventually adapt. So far, the MQ-9 has been used in areas – Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria – where the enemy lacked serious air defenses. Supersonic Russian jet fighters – if competently handled – against slow-moving drones could be a problem.

Nonetheless, drones have emerged as the scourge of the Russian army, which relies on tanks and artillery to sustain its offensive. Even a handful of U.S-made heavy attack drones – flown by determined Ukrainian pilots – could give the outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainians the edge they desperately need.

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