UFC Paris Main Event Odds, Picks, Predictions: Imavov Vs. Borralho

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA – FEBRUARY 01: Nassourdine Imavov of Russia reacts after a knockout victory against Israel Adesanya of Nigeria in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at anb Arena on February 01, 2025 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Zuffa LLC

This Saturday, the UFC returns to Paris for the 2025 UFC Paris Fight Card. The September 6 UFC Fight Night is headlined by a middleweight main event that finds Nassourdine Imavov meeting Caio Borralho inside the Octagon at Accor Arena. We look at the betting odds, picks, and predictions for the UFC Paris main event matchup.

The UFC Paris full fight card streams on ESPN+. The main card begins at 3:00 p.m. ET following prelims, which start at noon ET.

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UFC Paris Main Event: Nassourdine Imavov Vs. Caio Borralho

Nassourdine Imavov (16-4-0-1) was 8-2 when he first fought for the UFC. That bout came in October 2020, and he won a decision over Jordan Williams. Imavov went 3-1 in his next four UFC outings. In January 2023, Imavov was booked to face Kelvin Gastelum, but that fight fell apart when Gastelum withdrew. Sean Strickland stepped in on short notice to keep the fight, which was to be the main event, on the card. The only stipulation was that the meeting was to take place at light heavyweight. Strickland picked up a unanimous decision win in that scrap.

Imavov has fought four times since then. In June 2023 he faced Strickland’s teammate Chris Curtis at UFC 289, but that fight ended in a no contest when a clash of heads left Curtis unable to continue. Then, in February of this year, Imavov defeated Roman Dolidze by majority decision in a main event scrap on a UFC Fight Night card.

In June 2024, the 29-year-old scored a TKO win over former UFC middleweight title challenger Jared Cannonier in the main event of a June Fight Night card in Louisville.

Imavov took the best that Jared Cannonier had to offer in the first three rounds of their UFC Louisville main event and was in the process of turning the tables on the former UFC middleweight title challenger when referee Jason Herzog waved off the fight in the fourth stanza and awarded the victory to Imavov.

Cannonier’s game plan was a good one, but his approach of using leg kicks to slow his opponent and pick up control time against the cage didn’t work. Yes, the leg kicks scored for Cannonier, but they didn’t deter Imavov, who was mounting a comeback after falling behind 29-29 on two scorecards heading into the fourth round.

Before the fight was waved off, Imavov had honed in on Cannonier’s range and timing. He landed 60 percent of his significant strikes in the second round, 65 percent in the third, and 73 percent in the fourth before Herzog stopped the fight.

After his win over Cannonier, Imavov called for a matchup against former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland. He did not get his wish. Instead, Imavov faced Brendan Allen in the co-main event of a UFC Fight Night event in Paris. Imavov won that contest via unanimous decision.

Imavov added another win to his record, perhaps the biggest victory of his UFC career, when he defeated ex-UFC champ Israel Adesanya via TKO in February. That stoppage has Imavov as the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings.

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Caio Borralho (17-1-0-1) was 8-1-0-1 when he fought on the Dana White Contender Series in September 2021. A member of the rising “Fighting Nerds” team, Borralho picked up a decision win in that middleweight contest, but he did not earn a contract from Dana White. On October 19, Borralho gave the DWCS another shot, this time at light heavyweight. His first-round TKO win earned him a deal that night.

Borralho dropped back to 185 pounds for his UFC debut in April 2011. He scored a technical decision win in that scrap, the fight ended early after Borralho landed an illegal knee that left his opponent unable to continue. Borralho was deducted one point for the illegal blow.

Since that win, the 31-year-old Borralho has faced tougher competition in every outing. In May 2024, he dispatched Paul Craig via second-round knockout. Borralho followed that stoppage with a decision win over ex-UFC title challenger Jared Cannonier in his first UFC main event outing. The five-round battle earned the competitors “Fight of the Night” honors.

Borralho enters Saturday’s fight card as the No. 7 ranked UFC middleweight.

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UFC Paris Main Event: Nassourdine Imavov Vs. Caio Borralho Betting Odds And Line Movement

When BetOnline first announced the odds for the UFC Paris main event, Imavov was the -135 betting favorite over the +115 Borralho. The odds have flipped as fight night nears. As of this writing, Borralho is now the -127 favorite over the +107 Imavov.

UFC Paris Main Event Tale Of The Tape: Nassourdine Imavov Vs. Caio Borralho

Nassourdine Imavov

Age: 30
Height: 6’3”
Reach: 75”
Stance: Orthodox

Caio Borralho

Age: 32
Height: 6’1”
Reach: 75”
Stance: Southpaw

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UFC Paris Main Event Predictions And Picks: Nassourdine Imavov Vs. Caio Borralho

Expect Imavov to do his best to keep this fight on the feet, where he has an advantage. It’s likely that Borralho will engage him in that realm for as long as it takes for him and his corner to figure out they are falling behind on the scorecards. When that happens, Borralho will switch to his grappling game and look to get the fight to the mat, where he has the advantage. However, Imavov is not a slouch when it comes to defensive wrestling. He has a 78 percent takedown defense and he defended nine of 10 takedowns against Brendan Allen in there 2024 matchup.

The pick is for Imavov to score points with his striking and do enough to keep Borralho from winning rounds with his wrestling. With that, the betting pick is Imavov to win a decision in Paris.

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We will have more on the UFC Paris fight card as fight night nears, including live results, reactions, highlights and more on fight night.