UFC 319 Main Event Odds, Picks And Predictions: Du Plessis Vs. Chimaev

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 09: Dricus Du Plessis of South Africa prepares to face Sean Strickland in the UFC middleweight championship fight during the UFC 312 event at Qudos Bank Arena on February 09, 2025 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

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On Saturday, August 16, Dricus du Plessis looks to defend his UFC middleweight title for the third time. His opponent in the main event of the UFC 319 pay-per-view fight card is the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. We look at the full betting breakdown for Du Plessis vs. Chimaev.

UFC 319 takes place at the United Center in Chicago. The UFC 319 main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

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UFC 319 Main Event Preview: Dricus du Plessis Vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Dricus du Plessis (23-2) joined the UFC in October 2020 as a 26-year-old with a 14-2 record. Before he joined the UFC, Du Plessis had won titles with KSW and EFC. He made his debut against Markus Perez on the main card of a UFC Fight Night event in Abu Dhabi. Du Plessis knocked out Perez in the first round. He followed that win with a July 2021 “Performance of the Night” KO win of Trevin Giles.

Those two wins earned him a shot against the ranked veteran Brad Tavares. Du Plessis won that scrap via decision. The victory put him in the top 15 of the division. A December 2022 submission win over Darren Till moved Du Plessis to No. 10 in the division. A TKO win over the No. 5 ranked Derek Brunson followed.

Du Plessis, who was working his way up the rankings, faced a tough test in his next outing when he met the No. 2 ranked Robert Whittaker at UFC 290. Du Plessis continued his rise, knocking out the former UFC champion in the UFC middleweight title eliminator and earning another “Performance of the Night” bonus.

More important than the bonus was the title shot Du Plessis received for that win. He faced then-champion Sean Strickland in January, taking the title from Strickland in a “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning scrap

In his first title defense Du Plessis picked up an August 2024 submission win over former UFC middleweight champ Israel Adesanya.

Du Plessis most recently faced Strickland in a rematch at UFC 312 in early February of this year. Du Plessis won that contest via unanimous decision.

I wrote of the champ after that fight, “Dricus du Plessis looked much more controlled and less reckless at UFC 312 than in many of his previous battles. He mixed up his striking techniques and targets against Sean Strickland, landed the more powerful blows, and didn’t put himself in too many awkward positions.

“Du Plessis did a much better job in his UFC 312 rematch against Strickland in shutting down his foe’s offense. In the first fight, Strickland landed 173 of 408 significant strikes. While in the rematch, Strickland was held to 128 landed strikes on 263 attempts. Meanwhile, Du Plessis increased his landed strikes and landing percentage from the first fight to the second. In the first battle, Du Plessis landed 137 of 354 attempts for a landing rate of 38 percent. At UFC 312, the champ landed 147 of 314 attempts for a striking rate of 46 percent.

“Du Plessis has defended the UFC middleweight crown twice while going 9-0 in the UFC. Despite his winning ways, the champ remains a bit of an enigma because his style shouldn’t work — but it does.”

Chimaev (14-0) is the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings. The 30-year-old made his UFC debut in July 2020 with a second-round submission win over John Phillips. He followed that victory with a first-round TKO over Rhys McKee 10 days later, breaking the UFC record for the quickest turnaround between UFC wins in the modern era. Then, in September, Chimaev knocked out Gerald Meerschaert.

Things slowed down for Chimaev after that. He was booked to face Leon Edwards in December 2020, but that matchup never came to be despite multiple attempts to make the fight happen. The reason behind the numerous cancellations of Edwards vs. Chimaev was COVID-19.

When Chimaev finally returned to the Octagon in October 2021, he made short work of Li Jingliang, scoring a submission at 3:16 of Round 1.

In his next bout, Chimaev went the distance for the first time in his career, picking up a victory over Gilbert Burns. He followed that with a submission over Kevin Holland.

A break of more than a year followed that victory. Chimaev’s next outing was an October 2023 matchup against Kamaru Usman, a fight that Chimaev won via decision.

A year after that, Chimaev made short work of Robert Whittaker, defeating the ex-UFC middleweight champ via submission (face crank) in the first round of their UFC 308 scrap.

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UFC 319 Main Event Betting Lines And Movement: Dricus du Plessis Vs. Khamzat Chimaev

According to BetOnline, Du Plessis opened as the +165 betting underdog to Chimaev, who was listed as the -190 betting favorite. The betting lines have moved since then. Today, Du Plessis comes in at +185, while Chimaev is listed at -220.

UFC 319 Main Event Tale Of The Tape: Dricus du Plessis Vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Dricus du Plessis

Age: 31
Height: 6’1”
Reach: 76”
Stance: Switch

Khamzat Chimaev

Age: 31
Height: 6’2”
Reach: 75 ”
Stance: Orthodox

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UFC 319 Main Event Predictions And Picks: Dricus du Plessis Vs. Khamzat Chimaev

If Khamzat Chimaev figures out Dricus du Plessis he will be the first UFC fighter to do so. Du Plessis is an anomaly He doesn’t have great technical skills, but he doesn’t lose under the UFC. On paper he shouldn’t be a UFC champion, but he is.

As for Chimaev, he too is a fighter that we have questions about. He has good technical grappling skills and is an explosive starter, but he has very questionable cardio.

Most of the talk around this fight is that if Du Plessis can survive the first round he should be able to take over with his striking and rack up points for the win, but that’s a big if when it comes to someone as aggressive and explosive as Chimaev.

The betting pick is for Du Plessis to win a decision or via late knockout. However, a pick for Chimaev to win via early submission is not out of line.

We will have more on the UFC 319 main event, Du Plessis vs. Chimaev, as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 319 pay-per-view card on fight night