UFC 315 Fight Card Odds And Predictions: Muhammad Vs. Della Maddalena

Belal Muhammad attempts to make the first defense of his UFC welterweight title on Saturday, May 10, when he faces Jack Della Maddalena in the main event of the UFC 315 fight card. Muhammad, who upset Leon Edwards in July 2024 to win the 170-pound UFC crown, is unbeaten in his past 11 fights. Della Maddalena has not lost under the UFC banner and is 17-0 since opening his MMA career with back-to-back losses. We look at betting odds, line movement, preview, picks, and predictions for the Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena fight on the UFC 315 card.

The co-main event of the ESPN+ streaming PPV card finds UFC women’s flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko putting her belt on the line against the No. 2 ranked Manon Fiorot.

ForbesUFC 315 Fight Card Odds And Predictions: Shevchenko Vs. FiorotBy Trent Reinsmith

UFC 315 takes place on Saturday, May 10, from Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. The main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

UFC 315 Fight Card Main Event: Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Belal Muhammad (24-3-0-1) joined the UFC with a perfect 9-0 record. Not long after Muhammad claimed the Titan FC welterweight crown, the UFC came knocking. Muhammad signed with the promotion in 2016. At the time, he was 27. Bloody Elbow described him as, “In the cage he is largely a volume puncher, tending to work at the edges of range keeping a constant jab going and working behind it. He does well to work a kicking game in with his boxing, and puts some real power behind those kicks, but the focus is definitely on being a combination puncher. To that end, Muhammad does a good job feinting and changing rhythm, to keep his opponent from guessing his timing too easily.

“Muhammad uses his footwork well at range, circling away, maintaining distance and not walking himself into the pocket. As such he’s got pretty solid takedown defense. His focus is on accuracy and timing, and he rarely puts himself in a bad position to be taken down. Just because of his style, Muhammad hasn’t been much of a finisher to date in his MMA career, but he’s got the kind of style that’s great for breaking down opponents over time.”

Muhammad had a rough go of things in the UFC. He went 1-2 with his losses, a decision to Alan Jouban, and a knockout setback at the hands of Vicente Luque, bookending a TKO victory over Augusto Montaño. The loss to Jouban, Muhammad’s UFC debut, earned the combatants “Fight of the Night” honors.

After the loss to Luque, Muhammad won four straight decisions. That winning streak ended in 2019 when Geoff Neal topped Muhammad via decision. That loss is the most recent blemish on Muhammad’s record.

The 36-year-old is on a 10-0-0-1 run since then. Following the loss to Neal, Muhammad went 4-0. That run put him in the main event of UFC Vegas 21 opposite Leon Edwards. At the time, Edwards was the No. 3 competitor in the official UFC welterweight rankings, while Muhammad checked in at No. 13. Edwards was a -270 betting favorite, while Muhammad was the +220 betting underdog.

The contest did not last long as Edwards poked Muhammad in the eye 18 seconds into the second round. The eye poke left Muhammad unable to continue, and the fight was ruled a no contest.

Over the next two years, Muhammad rang up five more victories against progressively tougher competition. He defeated Demian Maia, Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Gilbert Burns during that run. The triumph over Burns earned Muhammad the No. 2 ranking in the division and a date with Edwards at UFC 304. Edwards was the reigning UFC welterweight champion at the time and was looking to make a third defense of that belt against Muhammad. Edwards was on a 12-fight unbeaten run when he stepped into the Octagon as the -265 favorite over the +215 Muhammad.

After the fight, which Muhammad won via decision, I wrote, “Belal Muhammad had the perfect game plan for Leon Edwards at UFC 304. Not only did he and his team have that strategy mapped out, but Muhammad seamlessly executed that plan of attack.

Muhammad used pressure and high-output striking to remove time and space from Edwards. That approach forced Edwards to retreat, and once Muhammad had his opponent’s back to the fence, he added his wrestling and ground control to the mix.

Edwards landed a decent percentage of his strikes at 66 percent, but the pressure from Muhammad limited his attempts to just 71 significant strikes. Edwards threw over 100 strikes in his two most recent bouts. Muhammad was especially effective in his wrestling, racking up nine takedowns on 13 attempts and picking up 12:02 of control time.

“With the win, Muhammad won the UFC welterweight title and extended his unbeaten streak to 11 fights. His last loss came in January 2019, when Geoff Neal defeated him via decision.”

Muhammad was booked to face Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310, but a bone infection prevented Muhammad from competing on that card. With Rakhmonov unable to compete at UFC 314, the UFC opted to book Muhammad against Della Maddalena in Montreal.

Jack Della Maddalena (17-2) signed with the UFC in September 2021 following a decision win over Ange Loosa on a Dana White’s Contender Series card. Before the bout, UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby said of Della Maddalena, “I thinkDella Maddalena is probably the best prospect out of New Zealand or Australia at welterweight. He’s a big guy. He throws a ton of offense, and he’s really good in the clinch. The win over Loosa marked the first time Della Maddalena had won a fight via decision. He went into the bout on a run of nine stoppages (eight knockouts, one submission) after opening his professional career at 0-2 with two stoppage setbacks. Della Maddalena was the reigning and defending Eternal MMA welterweight titleholder heading into the DWCS card.

The Australian scrapper opened his official UFC run with four first-round stoppage wins and three “Performance of the Night” bonuses. He finished Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan Emeev, and Danny Roberts by knockout before stopping Randy Brown via submission.

In his first fight to go the distance under the UFC banner, Della Maddalena was in a “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning affair with Bassil Hafez, which Della Maddalena won via split decision. He followed that with another split decision, topping Kevin Holland in September 2023.

The 28-year-old got to finishing fights in his most recent outing, knocking out former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns in the third round of their UFC 299 meeting.

I wrote of Della Maddalena’s “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning stoppage, “Jack Della Maddalena was focused and poised throughout his matchup with the higher-ranked Gilbert Burns. The 27-year-old’s striking was on point throughout the fight. He used combinations and mixed up his targets well. Even when things were not going his way, thanks to Burns’ grappling skills, Della Maddalena never panicked. That composure led to him landing a knee in the third round after a scramble to get off the mat and setting up the ground strikes that finished the fight at the 3:43 mark of Round 3.

“Della Maddalena showed a gap in his overall skills in this fight, struggling with his defensive grappling, but at just 27, the Australian has time to shore up that weakness in the future.

“Look for Della Maddalena to jump up in the official UFC welterweight rankings following UFC 299, as he entered the fight at No. 11, and Burns was No. 4. He is now 7-0 in the UFC and 17-2 as a pro.

“Also, it must be noted, that Burns was up 20-18 on two scorecards heading into the third round.

Della Maddalena is the No. 5 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings heading into UFC 315.

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UFC 315 Fight Card Main Event: Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena Betting Odds And Line Movement

When the opening betting odds for the UFC 315 main event were released, Muhammad was the -175 betting favorite over the +150 Della Maddalena. Today, those odds are the same.

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UFC 315 Fight Card Main Event Tale Of The Tape: Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Belal Muhammad

Age: 36
Height: 5’ 11”
Reach: 72”
Stance: Orthodox

Jack Della Maddalena

Age: 28
Height: 5’ 11”
Reach: 73”
Stance: Switch

ForbesUFC 315 Fight Card: Prelims Odds, Picks And PredictionsBy Trent Reinsmith

UFC 315 Fight Card Main Event Predictions and Picks: Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena

The main event of UFC 315 presents Jack Della Maddalena with an enormous jump up in competition. While the challenger is a well-rounded fighter with an excellent striking game, he has not faced a fighter as accomplished as Belal Muhammad.

I expect Muhammad to use the early moments of this fight to pick up on Della Maddalena’s habits and then to find openings to exploit those tendencies, which will most likely end up with the champion taking the fight to the ground, where he will keep Della Maddalena and rack up control time.

Della Maddalena has a puncher’s chance, but Muhammad has only been stopped once in his career and that came nearly eight years ago.

The betting pick is for Belal Muhammad to retain his UFC welterweight title with a decision victory at UFC 315.

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We will have more on the UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena bout as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 315 pay-per-view card on fight night.