Topline
American officials said Friday that Russia could launch a devastating bombardment and ground invasion of Ukraine at any time, and advised U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next two days, an increasingly dire set of warnings—but the Biden Administration insisted it’s still unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade.
A civilian defense unit trains in a forest in Kyiv, Ukraine, on January 22.
Key Facts
In a Friday afternoon press briefing, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said American citizens should leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours, a more precise timeline than some previous calls for U.S. citizens to evacuate the country.
Sullivan said people should evacuate immediately because a war would probably start with deadly Russian missile strikes and aerial bombings, and transit and communication would likely grind to a halt if the Russian military mounts a ground invasion.
PBS NewsHour’s Nick Schifrin reported Friday that U.S. officials think Putin has already chosen to go to war in Ukraine and has relayed his decision to the Russian military, citing multiple unnamed sources, and The Guardian reported that President Joe Biden told U.S. allies Putin has already made up his mind, according to diplomatic sources.
Sullivan pushed back on this reporting and claimed the United States hasn’t concluded Putin has made a final decision on whether to invade.
Still, Sullivan said “we are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time” if Putin chooses to invade, and while it’s unclear how much of Ukraine the Russian military could try to seize, any invasion could involve a “rapid assault on the city of Kyiv.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken offered a similarly dire message at a press conference in Australia earlier Friday, warning an invasion “could begin at any time.”
When asked for further comment, spokespeople for the National Security Council, State Department and Pentagon referred Forbes to Sullivan’s remarks.
Surprising Fact
Sullivan and Blinken say a Russian invasion could begin before the Beijing Winter Olympics wrap up, dispelling speculation that Putin may wait to avoid angering China, which has become an increasingly important partner of Russia’s.
Key Background
Russia began amassing more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border late last year, leading U.S. officials to warn Russia could launch an invasion. In recent weeks, the Biden Administration has argued Putin hasn’t made up his mind on whether to invade yet, but officials caution he could mount a devastating invasion within a matter of days, and the State Department claims Russia may try to justify a war by staging a fake Ukrainian attack. Russia’s relationship with its post-Soviet neighbor has been rocky since Ukrainians ousted a pro-Russia president in 2014, after which Russia fueled a separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine and annexed the Crimean Peninsula, prompting U.S. and European sanctions. But a broader invasion would mark a massive escalation in Putin’s campaign to keep Ukraine in Russia’s orbit, leading to scores of civilian deaths. The United States has threatened massive economic sanctions if Russia invades, but Biden has ruled out sending U.S. troops.
Tangent
Russia has denied any interest in invading Ukraine, framing its actions as internal troop movements. Still, Russian officials have responded to U.S. and European calls to de-escalate by urging NATO to roll back its activity in Eastern Europe and promise not to admit Ukraine, demands the United States and its allies say are nonstarters.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/02/11/us-urges-americans-to-leave-ukraine-within-48-hours-but-insists-still-unclear-whether-russia-will-invade/