U.S. Trade Tumbles $1 Billion, More For These Seven Nations, Data Shows

U.S. trade with Ireland has fallen when compared to the previous two months of June, 7.38% from the previous June and 19.59% from June of 2023. Ireland’s U.S. trade fell more in June from the previous month than any other country, down $6.95 billion, a decline of 46.34%. The total was less than one-quarter of the total for each of the first three months of 2025, as importers rushed to avoid tariffs that President Trump had threatened.

ustradenumbers.com

After a blistering first quarter fueled by a pre-tariff rush, U.S. trade with the world fell for the third consecutive month, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released Tuesday.

Total U.S. trade was $445.40 billion in June, down 3.08% from May. In May, trade had fallen for the second month in a row, albeit a scant 1.11%. In April, U.S. trade with the world had taken a real tumble, down 12.91% from March.

March was the tail-end of a blistering first quarter as importers rushed to get their goods into the United States ahead of tariffs on the world that Trump said would go into effect on April 2. Since then, the president has paused, increased and decreased those tariffs a number of times, the most recent deadline having been Aug. 1.

Trade goes up and down on a monthly basis, but the last time U.S. trade fell three or more consecutive months was the four months from November 2023 through February of 2024.

On a monthly basis, the following countries saw their trade fall at least $1 billion from the previous month:

1. Ireland, down $6.95 billion. Ireland, a hub for U.S. pharmaceutical imports, saw its trade decline 46.34% from May to $8.05 billion. That’s less than one-fourth of the March total, which was $32.13 billion and the lowest monthly total since February of 2024.
2. Switzerland, down $2.68 billion. Switzerland, a hub for U.S. gold trade, particularly on the import side, saw its trade decline 24.70% in June from May, from $10.86 billion to $8.18 billion. For the months of January, February and March, Swiss trade with the United States was more than triple the total for June. U.S. trade with Switzerland is, however, up 30.56% from the previous June. I wrote about U.S. trade with Switzerland one day ago.
3. Mexico, down $1.54 billion. The nation’s top trade partner, Mexico saw its trade decline only 2.07% from May, below the 3.08% U.S. average with the world. The $72.98 billion total for June is the fourth highest monthly total in the last two years.
4. Germany, down $1.36 billion. Germany’s trade with the United States fell from $19.77 billion to $18.41 billion in June, a decline of 6.89%. Its U.S. trade, however, has been remarkably consistent compared to U.S. trade with other countries and given the volatile trade environment President Trump has created with the European Union. Excluding the $23.78 billion total in March, it has ranged from a low of $18.33 billion to a high of $20.86 billion over the last 24 months.
5. France, down $1.35 billion. France is one of the four countries with a double-digit decline in June as well as a drop in excess of $1 billion from the previous month, Switzerland, Ireland and Hong Kong being the other three. France’s trade with the United States fell 13.45%, from $10.03 billion to $8.68 billion.
6. Hong Kong, down $1.28 billion. Hong Kong’s 32.85% one-month decrease from May is second only to Ireland’s 46.34% decline. Hong Kong trade fell from $3.71 billion in May to $2.49 billion in June. Its U.S. trade is down 14.40% from the previous June and 22.05% from June of 2023. Among the trade partners in this group, those are the steepest declines for those time periods. (The Census Bureau reports data for Hong Kong separate from China data as it does with Macau though both are controlled by China.)
7. The Netherlands, down $1.21 billion. Unlike the other countries on this list and despite seeing its trade decline more than $1 billion, the $11.09 billion total is the fourth-highest total over the last two years, with March, May and April of this year the top three. It is also one of two “countries” on this list, the other being Hong Kong, with which the United States regularly runs a surplus.

Despite trade falling in June for the third consecutive month, U.S. trade with the world year-to-date is up 9.59% to $2.71 trillion.

Mexico remains the top-ranked trade partner YTD though Canada ranked first for the month of June.

JFK International Airport remains the nation’s top-ranked port, followed by Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport and Port Laredo. But Port Laredo, the nation’s top port last year, ranked first for the month of June.

Among U.S. exports, civilian aircraft and parts remains top-ranked followed by three energy exports, oil, refined petroleum products and natural gas, including LNG.

Among U.S. imports, computers and computer hardware is the leading import, fueled by the needs of the explosive artificial intelligence industry and its need for computing power.

At the national level, U.S. exports increased 4.59% to $1.01 trillion, the first time exports have topped $1 trillion halfway through the year. U.S. imports have increased at almost three times that pace, up 12.82% to $1.70 trillion.

The U.S. deficit increased to $682.35 billion, an increase of 27.76% from the same six months of 2024.

Total trade, total exports, total imports and the U.S. deficit are all running at record paces through the first half of the year.

The percentage of U.S. trade that was an export – a relatively stable statistic, stood at 37% through June, down from 39% the last two years.

The data shows a tale of two halves: a frenzied first quarter followed by a three-month slowdown. The question now is whether this recent decline is a temporary blip or the first sign that the president’s trade policies are beginning to cool the U.S. trade and, perhaps, the economy.