The chances of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession have hit a significant milestone, with markets on Kalshi reflecting a 70% likelihood.
This marked increase signals growing concerns about the stability of the economy, as traders and analysts closely monitor macroeconomic indicators and future predictions.
The chart, showing the changing odds over time, reveals how sentiment has shifted. At the start of the year, the probability of a recession was far lower, hovering around 30%. But by early April, that probability surged past 70%, signaling heightened market anxiety.
A Closer Look at the Trend
Looking at the graph, the early part of 2024 showed a relatively stable outlook, with fluctuations in the odds reflecting short-term economic data and news. However, as the year progressed, a noticeable uptick began in the latter part of 2024. This sharp increase in April 2025 further cemented fears of an impending economic slowdown, as the likelihood of a recession crossed the 70% threshold.
This surge comes amid concerns about rising interest rates, ongoing inflation, and potential disruptions in global supply chains. These issues have led to an erosion of confidence in the economy, pushing investors to hedge against a downturn.
What Does This Mean for the U.S. Economy?
While the odds of a recession continue to climb, it’s important to remember that market predictions like these are not always accurate.
A recession prediction of 70% doesn’t guarantee it will happen, but it does show that the market is increasingly bracing for the possibility. With inflation continuing to be a significant concern, especially with the Federal Reserve’s actions on interest rates, many experts believe that the economy may face a slowdown.
Nevertheless, the 70% probability on Kalshi offers a glimpse into the market’s collective sentiment and its growing worry about the future. For now, all eyes are on upcoming economic data and policy decisions that could either confirm or alleviate these fears.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/u-s-recession-odds-hit-70-on-kalshi/