U.N. Warns Greenhouse Gas Emissions Must Peak In Next 3 Years To Avoid Most Devastating Climate Change Impacts

Topline

The United Nations called on governments Monday to drastically reduce fossil fuel emissions and ramp up investment in renewable energy in what it framed as a last-ditch plan to stave off the most extreme effects of climate change, warning that a goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels is nearly out of reach.

A local resident gestures as he holds an empty water hose during an attempt to extinguish forest … [+] fires approaching the village of Pefki on Evia (Euboea) island, Greece’s second largest island, on August 8, 2021. (Photo by ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP via Getty Images)

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Key Facts

The new report from scientists with the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called for “major transitions in the energy sector” away from fossil fuels, saying greenhouse gas emissions must peak no later than 2025 and must be cut by 43% by 2030 to achieve the 1.5C goal.

The report, designed as a framework for governments and businesses to enact policy changes, also called for massive new spending on renewable energy, finding investments in renewables need to increase by a “factor of three to six times” by 2030 to limit warming beyond 1.5C.

The authors of the report added they believe “there is sufficient global capital and liquidity to close investment gaps,” but doing do requires a “stronger alignment” of policy and public sector financing.

Monday’s report also said there is “significant untapped potential” in populations adopting lifestyle changes to reduce emissions, such as the creation of more “compact, walkable cities.”

New, lower-emission ways to produce building materials, like steel, will also be critical, the report stated, though it acknowledged such methods are still in early stages of development and achieving net zero emissions in industry will “be challenging.”

Methane emissions should also be reduced by about a third by 2030, but the report cautioned meeting all reduction goals might still not be enough to keep global temperatures from rising above 1.5C, at least temporarily.

Crucial Quote

“Even if we do this, it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but could return to below it by the end of the century,” the report said.

Surprising Fact

The report noted there has been significant progress in moving toward renewable energy, including “sustained decreases of up to 85% in the costs of solar and wind energy, and batteries” since 2010.

Key Background

Monday’s report, which was compiled by 278 authors based out of 65 countries, is the third in a series of dispatches from the IPCC, considered the most comprehensive and up-to-date reviews of climate change. The first report, released in August, focused on the physical science of climate change and determined it is “unequivocal” humans are driving an increase in global temperature. The second report, released in February, was about the impacts of climate change and included a particularly dire assessment. The February report stated the world has a “brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future,” while human action may already be causing irreversible water shortages and extreme weather, including rampant wildfires and floods. The report warned that 3.3 billion people live in places deemed “highly vulnerable” to climate change, almost all in poor countries.

Tangent

A 2018 IPCC report determined keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5C above preindustrial levels would likely cap sea level rise at 4 inches, while cutting the number of people who will suffer from lack of water in half and decrease the chances of having summers without ice in the Arctic. The 1.5C goal, however, has long been considered a very ambitious target.