Topline
Not one, but two hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin over the course of a few hours Wednesday morning, a rarity at any point in the year but especially toward the end of the hurricane season in early November, though neither storm poses an imminent threat to the United States.
Hurricane Lisa nears landfall in Belize on Wednesday.
Key Facts
Hurricane Lisa formed over the western Caribbean Sea at 8 a.m. EDT, while Hurricane Martin organized three hours later over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean.
Lisa is packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph as it nears landfall in Belize, while Martin has 75 mph winds and is not expected to pose major threats to land at any point.
The entire Belize shoreline and the extreme southern portion of Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula is under a hurricane warning, with “life-threatening storm surge” of up to 7 feet above normal tide levels expected, along with damaging winds and up to 10 inches of rain.
The hurricane is expected to strengthen slightly over the next few hours ahead of a Wednesday evening landfall—the National Hurricane Center expects the hurricane’s remnants to emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression Friday morning and meander there through the weekend.
Hurricane Martin is forecast to strengthen into a 105 mph Category 2 storm by Thursday, bringing it very close to the 111 mph threshold that would make it a Category 3 major hurricane, but it should quickly weaken over the cold waters of the north Atlantic this weekend.
Key Background
The second half of hurricane season—which started September 1—has been much more active than the season’s historically quiet first half. September in particular brought devastating storms like Hurricane Ian, which hit southwest Florida, and Hurricane Fiona, which damaged infrastructure in Puerto Rico. But dire predictions for one of the most active hurricane seasons in history have not come to fruition so far. As of Wednesday the 2022 season is still below average in terms of named hurricanes and tropical storms (13) and major hurricanes (2), while the 7 hurricanes that have formed are exactly the number expected in an average season. A typical season has 14 named storms and 3 major hurricanes.
Contra
The strongest storm of the 2020 hurricane season—Hurricane Iota—formed in November, with winds peaking at 155 mph on November 16. It was also the 30th and final named storm of the season, the most ever recorded in a single year.
What To Watch For
Forecasters are monitoring an area of disturbed weather near the Greater Antilles that is expected to move over the southern Atlantic during the next week or so, where “some slow subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible.” The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 20% chance of developing over the next five days. Hurricane season ends November 30.
Further Reading
Tropical Threat Fizzling Out As Surprisingly Quiet Hurricane Season Nears Peak (Forbes)
Hurricane Activity Could Skyrocket In Coming Weeks After July Lull, Forecasters Say (Forbes)
Hurricane Ian: These Are The Florida Areas Hardest Hit By The Category 4 Storm (Forbes)
Hurricane Fiona Hits Category 4 Strength As More Tropical Threats Brew In Atlantic (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2022/11/02/two-atlantic-hurricanes-form-wednesday-in-rare-november-tropical-burst/