Turnover Issues Continue To Haunt The Boston Celtics In NBA Finals

The only thing worse than a sloppy offense is a sloppy offense in June.

Following the Boston Celtics’ painful loss in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, Jaylen Brown cut right to the chase. The reason for his team’s hiccups — as well as their 10-9 record over the last 19 playoff games — comes down to one side of the ball.

“Credit to Golden State,” Brown said. “They made it tough us on us (in Game 5), just the intensity level. We dropped the ball, execution-wise. Offensively, we got to be better. I got to be better.”

He also could have said Boston dropped the ball, literally, over and over. Because that’s been the recurring theme in their playoff losses.

If the Celtics weren’t making it so hard on themselves, they might be the ones leading 3-2, eyeing a celebration on Thursday. With a championship on the line, they have continued to ride the successful wave that elevated them to this moment. Their defense, widely regarded as one of the most intelligent and physical of the NBA’s 21st century, is holding up. For the most part, Boston’s switching is taking the Warriors out of their favorite off-ball actions, and the three-time champs are being limited to contested shots.

However, it’s the offensive struggles that are causing frustration. The Celtics, whether it’s due to the Warriors’ ball-pressure or just youth and a lack of composure, can’t stop handing the ball to the opposition.

Turnovers continue to haunt these Celtics, who had the inside track for a championship with a 2-1 lead — and homecourt — after Game 3. Since the final buzzer that night, when downtown Boston was the loudest it’s been since 2010, the Celtics have turned it over 33 times on 189 possessions. That’s a turnover rate of 17.5%, a figure that would rank below the league-worst 16.5% during the regular season.

As the series shifted back to San Francisco tied 2-2, the turnover differential was only 60 to 59, in favor of Golden State. After Game 5, in which the Celtics coughed it up 18 times for 22 total points, it now stands as the leading factor in an otherwise tight matchup. It doesn’t matter that Boston is the more consistent three-point shooting team, or that they’re moving the ball more and outrebounding the Dubs.

The one thing you don’t do against a struggling halfcourt offense, which the Warriors tend to be when Steph Curry is human, is gift them opportunities to run. Golden State has swung this series in their favor by capitalizing on Boston’s errant passes:

The one time Boston was able to exorcise its third-quarter demons and win the period, to the tune of 35 to 24 in Game 5, it didn’t ultimately make a difference. They fell into a 16-point hole in the opening frame, largely due to poor decision-making, overpassing, and getting caught in the air with no visible outlet.

Head coaches can accept losses if his players are sticking to the principles they’ve been practicing all year long, or if the opposition is just too powerful to overcome. Through 240 minutes of basketball, though, it’s safe to conclude these are balanced and equally-dangerous teams. However, for those who underplayed the experience factor — particularly in the Finals when every player is under a microscope — we’re seeing a much different level of focus from the ones who’ve been there before.

Game 5 was an instance of one team playing too loosely and carefree with the ball, while the other recognized it early, then took advantage by ramping up the ball pressure.

Celtics head coach Ime Udoka has noticed a pattern with Boston’s turnovers. He’s preached it over and over in the last two weeks, but the solutions have only been temporary.

“Playing in the crowd too much has caused a lot of these turnovers,” Udoka said. “Obviously, Jayson, Marcus (both) having four, Jaylen having five, our primary ball handlers get caught in some tough spots at times.”

For a large portion of Boston’s turnovers, he’s right. The Warriors are masters at shrinking the floor, walling off the paint, and baiting the opposition into taking a huge chunk of their attempts from three. That inherently means there will be a lot of drives into the paint that go nowhere, leading to a pass and reset. During the regular season, Golden State ranked first in limiting rim opportunities. Only 27% of the opponents’ shot attempts came in the restricted area (league-average was 32.5%).

When the Warriors give an extra foot of space to outside shooters and collapse in the paint, Boston’s drive-and-kick strategy has to be flawless. If there’s any hesitation, second-guessing a pass, or a mishandle, the Warriors feast:

Notice Draymond Green’s activity in the above clip, after stepping over at the nail to help on Marcus Smart’s drive. He gets back out to Al Horford, switches a ball-screen to pick up Brown, and proceeds to stay aggressive as Brown drives into the paint. Curry is the low-man in this situation, so he slides over to cloud Brown’s vision and prevent a score. That left Gary Payton II to ‘zone up’ the weakside, and he picks off the pass to lead Golden State in transition.

Boston’s dynamic wing duo is still learning how to make proper reads in these spots. It’s not easy going against a battle-tested core that has plenty of reps defending LeBron’s Cavaliers, Durant’s Thunder, Harden’s isolation Rockets, and the Hall-of-Fame ball movement of the Spurs. Any offensive system you can think of, they’ve seen it.

Tatum, in particular, had another puzzling start in the last game. Even the most basic, rudimentary passes were off-target, leading to turnovers:

Udoka has mentioned multiple times during this series that offensive spacing is a major issue that causes some of their turnovers. Some of that is true, especially when Boston deploys shooters that Golden State isn’t compelled to respect on the perimeter.

Other times, it’s a matter of poor screening, and getting too caught up in attacking Curry in pick-and-roll action. On the first play below, Smart is determined to run this small-small pick-and-roll with White, knowing Curry will probably switch. Even when the court is properly spaced, though, this action gets blown up with Curry’s excellent defensive movement and Payton’s recovery:

The second play was another instance of Boston trying to hunt scoring chances against Curry. With no numbers advantage, Smart tried to lob an entry pass to Brown with Curry fronting the post. Once the ball flew out of bounds, Udoka immediately looked at Smart and let him know those attempts are too risky in a tight road game.

“Credit to them,” Brown said. “They’re a really good defensive team. Disciplined and sound. They’ve forced us to do what we don’t do best. We just got to continue to recognize the game, see the game, and make in-game adjustments. Take care of the ball when it comes down to it. Another game with too many turnovers. It cost us.”

Golden State understood the series was up for grabs. Their on-ball defense in Game 5 was the best I’ve seen it this whole season. No longer are they waiting for Boston to get into its actions early in the clock and then reacting. The pressure is coming with 20 on the shot clock, from three feet beyond the arc. They are now proactive. It’s clearly disrupting Brown and Tatum, while also leading to unnecessary take-fouls and free throws:

Klay Thompson’s defensive chops are making an appearance in the most pivotal moments. After looking a step slow in the regular season (understandably so), he’s inching closer to peak form on that end.

Golden State’s defensive issues in Game 3, a 16-point loss, started with a lack of resistance at the point of attack. They allowed Boston to drive into the paint 61 times in that game, constantly rotating on the weakside and forfeiting wide-open threes when the communication broke down.

After Game 3, Steve Kerr called out the Warriors for letting Boston waltz into the lane and dictate the action. Thompson, like he usually does, took the defensive criticism personally. He responded by locking up Brown in the final minutes of Game 4, then stifling any action Boston tried to run in his vicinity during Game 5.

Sometimes, it’s the subtle movements that prove to be the most impactful. Take this possession in the third quarter for example, as Horford is charging up the floor in transition. Thompson, trying to get matched up with Brown, turns his body to see Horford starting a dribble-handoff with his man. He steps directly in-between the two Celtics, jarring the ball loose and sparking a Warriors run-out:

“Yeah, they’ve ramped up the physicality,” Udoka said. “And they’re switching quite a bit more.”

When Golden State’s defense leads to a steal, the Dubs are scoring a blistering 146.9 points per 100 possessions — nearly seven points per 100 above the regular season average. As we’ve discussed, it’s not on low volume, either. Over 17% of their offensive possessions have started in transition, compared to just 12.9% for the Celtics:

In a series featuring two halfcourt offenses with glaring flaws (shot creation for Golden State, flow and ball security for Boston), this is how you make a difference. Unless there’s a huge talent discrepancy, every Finals is won on the margins. Although the Warriors are seasoned and have never required help finding these margins, the Celtics are wrapping it up …

Boston’s offense has severely let them down in this series. On Golden State’s misses (live rebounds), the Celtics are only scoring 78.8 points per 100 chances. For perspective, heading into the playoffs, Boston’s offensive rating on live rebounds was 135.2 — yeah it’s been that drastic.

It’s hard to expect anything more when the ball is often thrown to the opposition instead of the basket.

The Celtics should have plenty of film throughout the season revealing what works versus what gets them into trouble. Dating back to October, they are now 11-19 when committing 15-plus turnovers. Since their midseason revival (Jan. 28), they are 4-11.

Recording fewer than 15 turnovers, Boston is 54-21 on the year.

In playoff games, those records translate to 13-2 when they limit the turnovers to 14 or fewer … and 1-7 when they don’t.

Horford, the Celtics’ veteran leader, said he doesn’t think their offensive style needs to change, especially this late in a playoff run. To him, it’s about staying available on the weakside, properly spacing the floor, and continuing to place trust in Tatum and Brown to make reads.

“It’s a hard job, but they have to identify things,” Horford said. “Outlets are going to be what they are. Defense is going to be what it is. It’s just about making the play. It’s just as simple as that.”

With a do-or-die Game 6 on the horizon and Boston still searching for the offensive magic they discovered a week ago, there’s no more room for error.

“This is the time that we look at each other in the eyes and we got to figure it out,” Horford continued. “We have an opportunity now. Got to figure it out. There’s no tomorrow for us.”