Turkey Rules Out Giving Ukraine S-400 Missiles, But Ankara Could Soon Offer Kyiv Another Air Defense System

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has reaffirmed his country’s refusal to transfer its advanced long-range Russian-built S-400 air defense missile systems to Ukraine — which could really do with them right now.

“The U.S. asked us to send the S-400s to Ukraine, and we said no,” said Cavusoglu on May 7.

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NATO member Turkey began taking delivery of Russian S-400 systems in 2019, resulting in its expulsion from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. In his remarks, Cavusoglu said Ankara does not want to return to that program but wants reimbursement for the money it has invested. In a clear allusion to the fifth-generation TF-X Kaan fighter project, he pointed out that Turkey is building its “own national combat aircraft.”

The U.S. informally suggested Turkey could transfer its S-400 to Ukraine in March 2022, less than a month into the Russian invasion. Washington had previously stressed it would not waver on the F-35 suspension until Ankara physically removed the Russian systems from its territory. Even so, analysts are doubtful Turkey could ever gain readmission into that program, even if the opposition alliance wins the May 14 elections and opts to rid Turkey of these missiles.

Ukraine’s various S-300 and Buk air defense missile systems kept the Russian air force – which is much larger and has far more advanced fighters – at bay and denied Moscow from establishing air superiority. However, reports indicate Kyiv is almost out of these missiles, raising fears that Russia could soon begin sending its superior air force into Ukrainian airspace.

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The first American-built MIM-104 Patriot missiles recently arrived in Kyiv, where they successfully intercepted a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile fired at the Ukrainian capital in an overnight attack on May 6. Patriots and other advanced Western-built systems Ukraine’s allies are transferring will help shield Kyiv and possibly other major cities from aerial attacks. But they will only partially replace the large numbers of Soviet-era systems Ukraine has expended over the past 15 months. After all, Kyiv began this war with the largest arsenal of ground-based air defense systems in all of Europe outside Russia.

Ukraine’s Soviet-era systems survived the opening salvos of the February 2022 invasion thanks to prior warnings from Western intelligence and the adeptness of Ukrainian personnel in swiftly relocating them to evade Russian air and missile strikes. The Patriot system, on the other hand, is notoriously challenging to move and set up, requiring about 90 personnel to do so. For this reason, and the limited number of batteries its Western allies can supply, these systems will most likely remain fixed in place, defending Ukraine’s capital and other important urban centers.

Kyiv never operated S-400s. Nevertheless, given their extensive experience with various types of S-300s, Ukrainian military personnel could presumably master the system quite quickly.

Turkey took delivery of at least two S-400 systems and 120 missiles. In Ukrainian service, these could deter Russia’s air force from operating over significant swathes of Ukraine since Ukrainian crews could continuously move them around and keep Russian pilots second-guessing the risks of entering or even approaching Ukrainian airspace.

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Unfortunately for Ukraine, Turkey is not likely going to transfer any of these advanced systems. Even if it wanted to, it would risk incurring backlash from Russia, with which Ankara wants to maintain a workable relationship.

In December, Russia warned Greece against potentially supplying Ukraine with its S-300PMU-1 systems, which are much older and less advanced than the Turkish S-400. Moscow invoked prior bilateral intergovernmental agreements and prohibitions on unauthorized transfers to third parties in that warning. Athens subsequently ruled out transferring those missiles after briefly having contemplated it.

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There may be another way Turkey could help Ukraine significantly bolster its air defenses. In March, the chairman of Turkey’s Aselsan missile manufacturer boasted Turkey was eliminating the need for S-400s by developing the indigenous Siper system, which Ankara plans to offer for export. Tested in December, the Siper can hit targets over 60 miles away.

Turkey could offer Ukraine the Siper as an alternative to the S-400. While Western-supplied Patriots, NASAMS, SAMP/T, and IRIS-T systems defend key Ukrainian cities and strategic targets from Russian drone and missile strikes, frontline Ukrainian forces could deploy the Siper to prevent Russian jets from targeting their positions or providing allied ground forces with air support.

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Turkey supplied Ukraine with approximately 50 Bayraktar TB2 drones after Russia’s February 2022 invasion. When Moscow objected, Ankara stressed that the transfers were between the private company which produces the TB2 and Kyiv and therefore did not technically constitute state-to-state arms sales. It could invoke similar technicalities over any future Siper sale to Ukraine.

By supplying Ukraine with the Siper, Turkey would also have a unique opportunity to assess the system’s effectiveness on a modern battlefield.

While the Siper certainly won’t be ready for export in time for Ukraine’s looming counteroffensive, they could help bolster the country’s air defenses down the road, which could still make a difference if this costly war drags on for the foreseeable future.