TSLA stock at risk as bearish bets surge

The biggest thing Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock gave to its investors in the last 30 days of trading has been an emotional rollercoaster. First, TSLA shares dropped nearly 25% between late February and March 10, only to enter a period of volatility and, in the most recent sessions, to rally nearly 28% in a week.

Still, Tesla stock’s press time price of $288.14 means that it remains 12.82% down in the last 30 days, while short volume ratio data, retrieved by Finbold from Fintel on March 26, indicates few are confident the rally will persist.

Do the Tesla stock shorts hint at an imminent crash

Specifically, on March 25 and March 26 – as TSLA equity was first climbing above $270 and then $280 – the short volume ratio crossed above 50 for the first time since March 14 and stood at 52.93 and 52.46, respectively.

The fact that the short positions became more pronounced as soon as Tesla shares gained any momentum is concerning since, despite such a phenomenon frequently accompanying rallies, TSLA is significantly below its late 2024 and early 2025. 

Therefore, the rise in the ratio is indicative of low confidence the electric vehicle (EV) maker will enjoy a decisively positive period.

Furthermore, the two-week short volume ratio peak of 57.11, recorded on March 14, gives additional cause for concern as the spike coincided with a Tesla stock price drop from nearly $250 to just above $225.

Generally, Tesla stock’s outlook for 2025 appears mostly uncertain, as a great struggle has emerged between bearish and bullish factors. 

Will Tesla stock rise or fall in 2025?

To begin with, the technology sector’s traditionally impressive performance could indicate that TSLA will ultimately perform well this year, especially when paired with Elon Musk’s and Cathie Wood’s optimistic forecasts for the impact of humanoid robots.

Simultaneously, as touted as the angle is, the South African-Canadian-American billionaire has a history of making bold promises without them materializing in a timely manner and, frequently, ever,

Musk himself is both a bullish and a bearish factor. His closeness with the President of the United States, and Donald Trump’s now-attested willingness to publicly back Tesla has already led to something of a change in the EV maker’s customer base.

Elsewhere, the billionaire immigrant has become known for his controversial takes – and, as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), actions – and has, thus, alienated many both nationally and internationally.

Lastly, there is a strong possibility the needle will fall on the bearish side as Tesla’s quality control appears to be missing in action, as evidenced by the massive Cybertruck recall. At the same time, EV – in the form of BYD – and robotics – in the form of Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) – competition is rising from China.

Still, there is some upward pressure to be found in no small part thanks to the nearly $200 gap between Tesla shares stood in December, and where they stand at press time on March 26.