President Trump (Center) met with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Left) and Field Marshal Asim Munir (Right) on September 25th, 2025, showing a closer relationship with the country during his second administration.
The White House
President Trump is definitely changing the course of American foreign policy, trying to pull China’s allies away from Beijing. It may not work as well as he hopes. After Moscow rebutted his entreaties to cease fire in Ukraine, the White House began trying to woo Islamabad. Despite Pakistan’s tumult with India and Afghanistan, President Trump has moved to deepen ties with the nuclear-armed Muslim power.
Islamabad recently delivered its first shipment of enriched rare-earth elements and critical minerals to the U.S., marking the launch of a $500 million partnership framework for refining and processing. Washington is also reported to be near a multibillion-dollar arms deal, including advanced air-to-air missiles and an expanded agreement over natural resources development in exchange for lower tariffs. For the Trump administration, this partnership appears to be just another pragmatic deal. For the Modi government, it reads as a direct affront to three decades of U.S.–India strategic investment.
India-Pakistan Crisis and Diplomatic Fallout
Until recently, the U.S.–India relationship appeared steady. As recently as this April, Vice President J.D. Vance praised bilateral cooperation across defense, energy, technology, and consumer markets during his visit to Jaipur. India’s natural skepticism towards China seemed to ensure deep cooperation. That optimism faded quickly in the wake of a terror attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that took the lives of 26 civilians. India responded with precision strikes deep into Pakistan’s mainland, targeting terrorist infrastructure in Operation Sindoor.
Washington’s reaction displeased New Delhi. On May 9, Vice President Vance called for de-escalation and emphasized U.S. non-involvement. A ceasefire was reached the following day. Indian officials maintained it was secured through a direct military hotline with Pakistan, while Trump claimed the truce was the result of U.S. mediation. Islamabad quickly backed that narrative, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif later nominating Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize. New Delhi, by contrast, rejected the claim outright. Prime Minister Modi repeatedly emphasized that India does not accept third-party involvement in its disputes with Pakistan.
As Modi maintained this position and continued India’s purchases of oil from Russia amidst Trump’s efforts to impose secondary sanctions, the U.S. levied an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, raising rates to 50%. President Trump later mocked India’s economy as “dead” and threatened 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and 50% on copper. At the same time, his administration introduced a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas, disproportionately affecting Indian tech professionals, who account for more than 70% of approved petitions. The fallout extends beyond trade and business: these unilateral steps strain broader cooperation, including joint deterrence efforts through the Quad in the Indo-Pacific and the Israel-India-USA-UAE initiative, I2U2.
Pakistani Fragility
Trump’s embrace of Pakistan overlooks the country’s deep structural flaws. While Islamabad may present itself as a willing partner, it remains far from stable. The economy is fragile, burdened by low per capita income, heavy debt and reliance on IMF support. Politically, it struggles with the rise of Islamist political parties, internal volatility, and weak civilian control over the military. Pakistan also continues to harbor militant groups that operate against India—a reality documented by international security assessments. Its security risks extend beyond India, as witnessed recently when Pakistani and Afghan Taliban forces (backing Pakistani Taliban rebels) engaged in military skirmishes along their shared border. The border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Durand Line established by the British Raj, is not recognized by the Pashtun-led Afghan Taliban or by many Pashtuns on the Pakistani side of that divide, particularly the terrorist Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, and the Afghan/Pakistan borderlands remain rife with drug trafficking, and threats of terror, and territorial instability.
Armed Taliban security keep guard near the closed gate of the zero-point border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan at Spin Boldak district following heavy border clashes. Pakistan’s conflicts with Afghanistan are merely one element of risk introduced by a tightened relationship with the country. (Photo by Sanaullah SEIAM / AFP) (Photo by SANAULLAH SEIAM/AFP via Getty Images)
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Moreover, Pakistan is deeply intertwined with China, which has invested over $65 billion into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, upgrading highways, power plants, and the Gwadar port. Beijing has also committed to expanding CPEC into mining, IT, and agriculture. In the defense and technology sphere, Pakistan depends on Chinese arms and training. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 81% of Pakistan’s imported weapons in recent years have come from China, including fighter jets, missiles, and radar systems. China, in turn, benefits from Pakistan’s confrontational stance toward India, as ongoing cross-border tensions divert Indian diplomatic and military focus away from the contested Himalayan border and from Beijing’s growing influence in Nepal and Bhutan.
The U.S.–India partnership, though experiencing setbacks, was built over three decades of expanding trade, technological cooperation, and strategic alignment. New Delhi may weather this rough patch, but not without consequence. As Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, notes: “For Delhi, it all boils down to … how much can it tolerate U.S.–Pakistan cooperation without having it spoil U.S.–India relations – a partnership that’s thrived in recent years despite continued U.S.–Pakistan links.” In the view of this author, India remains far more central to American economic and geopolitical interests. A close, transparent and cooperative relationship with India—from critical minerals to defense and Indo-Pacific security—is likely to deliver more durable returns than any transactional tilt toward a China-aligned, unstable Pakistan.
Despite tensions surrounding areas like trade and India’s relationship with Russia, the U.S.-India partnership remains a lynchpin of American economic and security interests in Asia, and may be put at risk over closer ties to Pakistan. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
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In the end, from Washington’s point of view, the best of all possible worlds may be expanded cooperation on both the economic and security fronts with these historic rivals. It remains to be seen whether India will become willing to engage in the kind of regulatory reforms that can further unleash its geoeconomic potential, as suggested by Dr. Kamran Bokhari, a fellow Forbes contributor. Can the Modi government step up to bat on the security front to help balance China? These are not “easy” asks – however, these are not easy times. Washington will remain engaged to try and advance the equilibrium. The fortunes of both New Delhi and Islamabad and the peace and prosperity of South Asia depend on the new balance-of-power policies pursued by the U.S.