Trump’s New Russia Policy Is A Turning Point But Will It Be Enough?

On July 14, in an announcement that caught both allies and critics off guard, former President Donald J. Trump issued his strongest rebuke yet of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Trump’s new Russia policy gave a 50-day deadline to the Russian leader: start peace negotiations or face a 100% tariff on all Russian exports, along with sanctions on third-party nations that continue to buy Russian oil. He also announced the sale of Patriot missile systems to NATO allies—though not directly to Ukraine—and restated his opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, sending troops, or invoking the Budapest Memorandum.

Although these steps don’t amount to a full strategic shift, they mark an important change: for the first time, Trump seems to recognize the threat posed by Putin not only to Europe but to global peace—and eventually, to American leadership.

A Tentative Step in the Right Direction.

This new stance warrants recognition. It embodies a growing realism that Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine cannot be ignored, minimized, or postponed. But if this truly marks the start of a renewed American approach to international order, it will require more than tariffs and arms sales. It will need moral clarity, sustained commitment, and global leadership. (In the spirit of full disclosure, the writer is a past President of the Canada Ukraine Foundation and a senior advisor to the Centre for Eastern European Democracy in Toronto).

There are compelling reasons why helping Ukraine is not only consistent with American interests—it is essential to preserving them.

• Ukraine anchors international security. As Victor Rud, a prominent international attorney, noted in Forbes, “Ukraine’s independence is a sine qua non for not just American security, but global stability.” A sovereign Ukraine curbs Russia’s imperial ambitions and protects Europe’s eastern flank—America’s longest-standing alliance structure.
• Ukraine helped end the Cold War. By breaking away from the USSR in 1991, Ukraine played a crucial role in accelerating the fall of Soviet communism, paving the way for a three-decade period of U.S.-led global order. That victory rings hollow if we abandon one of the nations that made it possible.
• America committed. In 1994, through the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine relinquished the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world in return for security guarantees from the U.S., U.K., and Russia. The moral and strategic importance of that promise still echoes today.
• Ukraine is standing firm for the West. Containing Russia enables the U.S. to concentrate on the Indo-Pacific and address increasing challenges from China with fewer distractions in Europe.
• Our credibility is at stake. Ukraine is a founding U.N. member, but Taiwan is not. If the U.S. cannot be relied upon to support Ukraine, how credible can our promises to others be?
• Minimal cost, maximum return. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, the U.S. has not deployed troops to Ukraine, yet Ukraine’s military—supported by U.S. weapons—has significantly weakened Russian capabilities. Few foreign commitments have delivered such strategic value at such a low human cost.
• Ukraine shares our values. Despite Kremlin propaganda, Ukraine has a long-standing tradition of democracy. From the Cossack republics of the 17th century to the Maidan uprising of 2014, Ukraine has consistently supported freedom and pluralism.
• A blow to terror enablers. Russia has long supported regimes and movements that destabilize the West, including links to Middle Eastern terror networks. Weakening Putin’s military helps reduce those channels of influence.
• Ukraine is resisting total war and genocide. Moscow’s war has involved indiscriminate bombing, deportations, and war crimes. Ukraine’s resistance supports the post-World War II order, which bans aggressive conquest.
• A trusted partner. Ukraine has stood alongside the U.S. in global operations—from Iraq to Afghanistan—rescuing hundreds of civilians during the Kabul evacuation. It has earned trust through action.
• Ukraine is a global breadbasket. A disruption in Ukraine’s grain exports could jeopardize food security for millions, especially in Africa and the Middle East.
• Nuclear risk is real. The Zaporizhzhia plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power station, remains under Russian control—potentially repeating Chernobyl with global consequences.
• History warns us about silence. In 1932–33, the world did not act during the Holodomor. We must not make the same mistake of ignoring crimes against humanity.
• Maritime law is at risk. Russia’s claims to the Black Sea threaten principles of freedom of navigation that the U.S. depends on in the South China Sea and beyond.
• The rules-based order starts in Kyiv. Ukraine’s history with totalitarianism gives its fight a strong moral significance. Their resistance reaffirms the core principles of international law and sovereignty.

The Shortcomings of a Limited Strategy.

While Trump’s new measures are a step forward, they also expose the limits of his policy:

• The Patriot missiles will go to NATO allies, not Ukraine, which continues to face missile and drone barrages.
• There is no commitment to NATO membership or other binding defence guarantees for Ukraine.
• No plans exist to restock Ukraine’s frontline forces, only those of NATO states with principle.
• The U.S. statement explicitly rules out troop deployment or invocation of prior security pledges.

These omissions create critical gaps. A containment strategy that delays decisive support risks prolonging the war and emboldening other autocratic regimes.

A Time to Lead, Not Hesitate

President Trump’s New Tone on Ukraine Is Appreciated, but It Cannot Mark the End of the Discussion. The stakes are too high. China is observing. Iran is too. America’s allies are watching as well.

Ukraine has earned our support not just through shared ideals but through action, sacrifice, and resilience. The cost of peace must not lead to abandoning those who have stood with us. America’s legacy is built on resolve, not retreat.

If we are to remain leaders of the free world, let this Trump’s new Russia policy be the start of a broader strategy —one that balances strength and stands firm when freedom itself is at stake.