Trump’s GOP Support Drops After Indictment, Poll Suggests

Topline

Support for former President Donald Trump appears to be dipping, new polling shows, just weeks after he was indicted on 37 felony charges, including for allegedly willfully retaining national defense information and conspiring to obstruct justice—a charge that could mean prison time if he’s convicted.

Support for former President Donald Trump has dipped some 6% among registered Republican voters … [+] since the indictment, a new poll shows.

AP/Andrew Harnik

Key Facts

Republican support for Trump has declined since the indictment, the CNN poll found, with 47% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters saying Trump was their first choice for the Republican nomination, down from 53% in a May CNN poll.

The CNN poll, completed entirely after Trump’s arraignment last week, found that most Americans approve of Trump’s indictment but 71% of those polled also said politics played a role in the decision to charge the former president.

Trump’s favorability among Republican-aligned voters also dipped in CNN’s last poll, dropping 10% since May, down to 67%.

A FiveThirtyEight polling average showed that Republican support for the former president slipped only slightly after he was indicted, going from 53.8% to 53.5%.

Tangent

The CNN poll also found support for Trump’s chief challenger at the moment, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, held steady at 26%. Former Vice President Mike Pence’s support slightly increased, from 6% to 9%, while Sen. Tim Scott saw a small boost from 2% to 4%. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley declined from 6% to 5%.

Contra

Polling since the indictment has gone both ways, with some polls showing growing support for the former president and others waning support among GOP voters. A Morning Consult poll released last week found that 59% of potential GOP primary voters would vote for Trump if the primary was held that day—a slight increase from the previous week before the indictment, when support was at 55%. Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken after the indictment found support for Trump had only slightly dipped. About 43% of self-identified Republicans said Trump was their preferred candidate, compared to 49% in May, but the poll was taken before DeSantis entered the race.

Surprising Fact

Even after the indictment, a majority (54%) of Republican and Republican-leaning voters told CNN that Trump’s conduct doesn’t matter as much to them when considering whom to support in the upcoming election. In fact, 42% of those CNN polled said other Republican candidates should do more to publicly condemn the government’s prosecution of Trump.

What To Watch For

The indictments have not changed Republican voter perception about Trump’s electability. Some 87% of Republicans see Trump as “extremely”, “very” or “somewhat” likely to be the Republican nominee come 2024, the CNN poll found.

Key Background

The recent polling plateau for Trump represents a break in momentum from much of the 2024 presidential campaign. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s support across Republican primary polls was below 45% in March before rising to a campaign high of 54.8% earlier this month, even as challengers like DeSantis jumped into the race.