Topline
Donald Trump did not announce plans to run for a second term as president during a rally in Ohio late Monday, despite speculation that his quest to return to the White House could kick off on the eve of Tuesday’s midterms—but he promised a “very big announcement” next week.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures during a rally for Sen. Marco Rubio at the Miami-Dade … [+]
Key Facts
Trump will make his announcement—the contents of which are unclear—at his Mar-A-Lago club on November 15, a week after the midterm elections, the former president said at a campaign rally for several Ohio midterm candidates.
The 2024 presidential election did not appear to be far from Trump’s mind: He spent part of Monday’s rally mocking President Joe Biden and touting his performance in a handful of 2024 presidential election polls, and he said “we are going to take back our magnificent White House” in 2024—though he stopped short of saying he would run.
The Washington Post reported earlier Monday that Trump had privately floated the idea of announcing a 2024 presidential bid during the Ohio rally, but GOP leaders encouraged him to hold off until after the midterms, fearing the specter of Trump— a polarizing figure who is disliked by most independents and despised by Democrats—could boost Democratic turnout and erode Republicans’ narrow advantage.
Key Background
Trump’s possible return to the presidential arena isn’t exactly a surprise. Since leaving office, he has remained unusually involved in Republican politics and fundraising, and he has dropped a series of barely-veiled hints that he hopes to be the first president since Grover Cleveland to win two non-consecutive terms. But Trump is still facing political and legal blowback from the chaotic end to his first term in office, which was dominated by Trump’s baseless claims the 2020 election was rigged against him, bookended by a riot at the Capitol and followed up by federal investigations into his attempts to overturn President Joe Biden’s win and his handling of sensitive government documents. While Trump remains overwhelmingly popular among Republican voters, most Americans don’t want him to run for another term, according to several recent polls. However, some early polling calls for a tight 2024 matchup between Biden and Trump (Biden’s approval rating sits at 42.1% according to FiveThirtyEight, roughly equal to Trump’s 42% rating at the same point in his presidency).
What To Watch For
If Trump announces a presidential run, it could complicate a pair of ongoing criminal investigations by the Department of Justice: A probe into the January 6 riot that has reportedly expanded to look at Trump and his inner circle, and a separate probe into handling of classified records that led FBI agents to search Trump’s Mar-A-Lago resort over the summer. The DOJ typically treads lightly when candidates for political office are in prosecutors’ sights, avoiding any moves that can be interpreted as partisan. CNN reported last week the DOJ is considering naming a special counsel to oversee both Trump-related investigations
What We Don’t Know
It’s unclear whether Trump will face a competitive 2024 Republican primary—or whether a rematch against Biden is likely. Many observers think Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is weighing a presidential run, but he hasn’t made an announcement yet, and most polls suggest Trump would start the GOP primaries with a double-digit lead over DeSantis. Meanwhile, Biden hasn’t announced a reelection bid, but he says it’s his “intention” to run.
Further Reading
Trump spooks Republicans with talk of presidential launch on eve of vote (Washington Post)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/11/07/trump-may-announce-2024-presidential-run-tonight-report-says/