Topline
President Donald Trump again claimed he was receiving “the best Polling Numbers that I have ever received” in a Monday morning post on Truth Social, but polling aggregators show his approval rating was much higher at the start of his second term before declining, and are still at historic lows for a president.
The president still has a net negative approval rate, according to most recent polling.
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Key Facts
Polling aggregators, including the New York Times, RealClear Polling, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin indicate the president started his second term with a significantly higher approval rating, with the Times indicating it was as high as 52%, and has never fully recovered since declining in March and April.
A Quinnipiac poll released last week found only 40% of voters approve of Trump’s job as president, compared to 54% who disapprove—although Trump’s approval improved slightly since the last Quinnipiac poll released in September, where his job approval rating slumped to 38%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed Trump’s approval rating improving slightly in October, but the president still had net unfavorability with a 56% disapproval rating.
Silver’s average, which looks at a number of polls and weights them based on reliability, found that Trump had an average 43.8% approval rating, compared to an average disapproval rate of 53.1%.
However, Trump’s approval rating is still higher than it was at the same point during his first term—according to Gallup’s tracker of its own polling data, the president had a 35% approval rating in October and November of 2017.
Trump’s approval rating during his first term peaked at 49% in the first half of 2020, according to Gallup’s data.
Trump did not identify specific polling numbers in his post on Monday, and the White House did not immediately clarify when asked for comment from Forbes.
Most polling data shows Trump’s average approval numbers (from both terms) to be the lowest among U.S presidents since polling began in the 1940s.
How Are Americans Responding To Trump’s Policies?
In his Truth Social post, Trump claimed voters were responding favorably to his administration’s handling of a number of social and economic issues, as well as his role negotiating various peace and ceasefire deals in international conflicts. However, recent polling suggests this isn’t the case. Only 38% of registered voters approved of the way Trump was handling the economy, according to the Quinnipiac poll, while 57% of voters disapproved. Voters were much more positive on how he handled the negotiations that turned into a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. A total of 47% approved of his handling of the conflict, a strong improvement from 31% in September, while 41% still disapproved. Recent polling also suggests Trump is losing support from key demographics that helped him secure a second term last November. An AP-NORC poll released last Friday indicated only 25% of Hispanic adults had a favorable view of Trump, compared to 44% in January before the start of his second term. Trump’s job approval rating with Hispanic adults also plummeted to 27%, after reaching a high of 42% in April.
Contra
Trump could be referring to his job approval with Republicans. A recent Economist/YouGov poll conducted in mid-October found that 85% of members of the president’s own party strongly or somewhat approved of his job performance. The same poll found only 27% of independents and 4% of Democrats approved of his job performance.
Tangent
Trump brought up his polling numbers again on Monday while speaking to reporters during his trip to Asia. When asked about more speculation that he might try to run for president again, he used polling as justification for a likely unconstitutional third term. “I have the best poll numbers I’ve ever had. I mean, I just solved eight wars and the ninth is coming. I believe Russia-Ukraine will happen.” Trump once again refused to rule out a second term, but touted several of his Cabinet members as potential nominees in 2028. “We have JD, obviously, the vice president is great. I think Marco’s great.”