Trump Beats DeSantis Among Florida Voters In Poll While Ramping Up Attacks

Topline

Florida voters narrowly prefer former President Donald Trump to the state’s Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in a head-to-head matchup for the GOP’s presidential nominee in 2024, a new Emerson College poll finds, as the Florida governor has started slipping in polls following a post-midterms bump as Trump has escalated his attacks against him.

President Donald Trump introduces Florida Governor Ron DeSantis during a campaign rally on November … [+] 26, 2019 in Sunrise, Florida.

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Key Facts

The poll, conducted March 13-15 among 1,153 Florida voters, found 47% of respondents prefer Trump in 2024, while 44% prefer DeSantis.

No other GOP candidate came close to the support Trump and DeSantis received, with former Vice President Mike Pence far behind with 4%, followed by former Gov. Nikki Haley (2%), Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) (1%), former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (1%), or someone else (2%).

Florida voters did prefer DeSantis in a general election: Trump was tied with President Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup, with each getting 44% support, while DeSantis beat Biden 46% to 43%.

DeSantis has a 51% approval rating among Florida voters, according to the poll, with Republicans strongly in favor of him (90% support) but only 35.2% approval among Independent voters, while 51% disapprove.

That’s much lower than how DeSantis fared in the November midterms, when he won reelection with 59% of the vote, 19 percentage points ahead of Democratic challenger Charlie Crist.

The poll found Florida voters are concerned about Biden’s age in a general election—he’d be 82 upon starting his second term—with 56% saying it would be an “obstacle to him being an effective president,” while only 33% say the same about Trump, who would be 78 when he’s sworn in.

Tangent

The poll found 55% of respondents approve of how DeSantis is handling public education, even as the governor’s policies have garnered significant controversy nationwide. DeSantis has come under fire for education policies that include rejecting a proposed AP African-American Studies course, restricting classroom library books and discussions of race, and what’s known as the “Don’t Say Gay” law, which put restrictions on classroom instruction of sexual orientation and gender identity.

What To Watch For

DeSantis still hasn’t formally announced his 2024 candidacy and it’s unclear when he will. It’s likely to happen after the Florida legislature wraps up its legislative session in May, which is expected to see bills on a number of conservative priorities get signed into law and give DeSantis momentum as he launches a campaign.

Key Background

DeSantis has been long seen as Trump’s primary rival for the GOP nomination in 2024, particularly after he sailed to reelection in the November midterms while Trump’s star power fell as he was blamed for many of the GOP’s losses among candidates he’d endorsed. While polls showed a bump for DeSantis in the wake of his midterms win, more recently his standing has been slipping, however. A New York Times analysis of recent polls found DeSantis has lost four points in polls on average taken over the last month as compared with polls conducted between January 15 and February 15, such as a recent Quinnipiac poll that found Trump now leads DeSantis by a 12-point margin versus a six-point margin in January. DeSantis’ slip comes as Trump has ramped up his attacks on DeSantis—whom he’s dubbed “Ron DeSanctimonious”—including a planned ethics complaint against DeSantis for running a “shadow” 2024 campaign without formally announcing and going after him at rallies. DeSantis, meanwhile, has stayed notably silent on Trump, so far not matching the ex-president’s attacks or directly criticizing him as a candidate.

Topline

Key Facts

Tangent

What To Watch For

Key Background

Further Reading