Trump And Putin’s History of Empty Threats Undermines Alaska Summit

OSAKA, JAPAN – JUNE 28: (——EDITORIAL USE ONLY MANDATORY CREDIT – “KREMLIN PRESS OFFICE / HANDOUT” – NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS – DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS——) US President Donald Trump (R) meets Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) on the first day of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan on June 28, 2019. (Photo by Kremlin Press Office / Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

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US President Donald Trump announced that he will meet with Russian President Vladmir Putin on Friday in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine. For Putin this summit is a diplomatic win: he secured the meeting without offering concessions such as a ceasefire or agreeing to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

While Trump promised to update Zelensky after the meeting, he doesn’t seem to want Zelensky to attend either, remarking: “I would say he could go, but he’s gone to a lot of meetings, he’s been there for three-and-a-half years and nothing happened.”

Frustrated by the lack of progress in Ukraine, Trump had also threatened to implement further sanctions on Russia if the fighting continued. However, instead of following through on this, Trump agreed to their first face to face meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine. In defence of the meeting, Trump insisted that Putin is not going to “mess with” him.

Indeed, both men have been cast as strongmen—with Putin portrayed as unwilling to back down in the war in Ukraine, and Trump lauded in some circles for his real life application of mad-man theory or his big and bold negotiating style. Yet both leaders’ records suggest a willingness to blink when tested.

Putin has mainly shown determination to maintain the status quo, as he sees the war effort tied to his political survival. Though Russia has suffered over one million casualties, Putin’s approval rating is higher than ever at 86%, a rise from 63% before the war started.

While there are huge costs to continuing with the war, this has not affected his grip on power. In fact quite the opposite, Russia has become increasingly authoritarian and patriotic. Though Russia is running out of troops, Putin can outsource soldiers from North Korea and elsewhere and keep the war going on indefinitely. Polling Russians about the war is complicated, but surveys reveal that almost 70% of Russians are in support of the conflict and pursuing total victory.

Yet while Putin’s gamble bolstered his domestic support, Putin is weaker than he appears vis-à-vis the West and Ukraine. In fact Putin’s history of backing down from threats points to vulnerabilities beneath the surface.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin warned that he would target the US and the UK if they sent Ukraine long-range weapons, but once this happened Putin’s response was more limited than expected. Though Putin unveiled the Oreshnik intermediate ballistic missile on Dnipro, he did not do much else.

Repeatedly in 2022 and 2023 Putin warned the West that he would use all means necessary if long-range missiles were supplied to Ukraine, interpreted as nuclear level escalation. Then in 2024 Putin proposed changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine to lower its threshold to use nuclear weapons. But while Putin claimed he wasn’t bluffing, these repeated threats of using nuclear weapons have thus far been empty. Even after F-16 fighter jets were sent to Ukraine— another red line for Putin, this was met with a muted response.

Working in Putin’s favour, however, is that Trump also has a history of backing down from self-imposed deadlines and threats. Trump threatened Putin with sanctions in January, March and July of this year unless a ceasefire was agreed to but each deadline passed with no economic penalties. Even as Trump appeared to grow tired of Putin’s routine of being nice on the phone and then bombing “everybody,” Putin has not crossed Trump’s red lines either.

Trump claimed that he will press Putin to pursue peace, but with what levers? Laying out the administration’s cards for Putin clearly to see, Vice President JD Vance announced that the US was done with funding Ukraine.

And while Trump’s team is hailing this upcoming meeting as a fact finding mission to better understand what Putin wants, it’s not clear that anything new will be learned. Putin wants total control over Ukraine or significant territorial concessions—non-starters for the Kiev. Equally important is Putin’s desire to undermine democracy in Ukraine, which he sees as a major threat to his own hold on power, advocating for elections and new leadership in Ukraine—another non-negotiable for Ukraine.

Without Ukraine present to defend its point of view, the Alaska summit looks likely to yield symbolic gestures and unenforceable promises.