True Covid Pandemic Death Toll Could Be Three Times Higher Than Official Count, Study Finds

Topline

Covid-19 may have claimed far more lives than official records indicate, according to a new study published in the Lancet medical journal, a sobering figure that marks exactly two years since the World Health Organization declared a coronavirus pandemic.

The pandemic death toll could have been far higher than official figures, a study estimated.

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Key Facts

An estimated 18.2 million more people around the world died between January 1 2020 and December 31 2021 than would have been expected based on past trends, according to an analysis of data from a number of government and international databases including the World Mortality Database, Human Mortality Database, and European Statistical Office.

The researchers said the figure—known as “excess deaths” or “excess mortality”—paints a more “accurate” picture of deaths due to the pandemic than the official count suggests, which was three times smaller, 5.9 million, at the end of 2021.

Excess deaths can be higher than official counts for a number of reasons, such as issues with reporting data and a lack of testing for coronavirus, and cover those may have died because of, but not necessarily from, Covid-19, such as people unable to access medical care for other problems or who had pre-existing conditions worsened by Covid.

The estimate means the pandemic caused six excess deaths for every 5,000 people in the world over the two years studied, though this figure varies dramatically across countries and regions and in 21 countries this exceeded 15 excess deaths for every 5,000 people.

In absolute terms, the researchers estimated seven countries accounted for more than half of all excess deaths over the past two years: India (4.1 million), the U.S. (1.1 million), Russia (1.1 million), Mexico (798,000), Brazil (792,000), Indonesia (736,000), and Pakistan (664,000).

Crucial Quote

“Understanding the true death toll from the pandemic is vital for effective public health decision-making,” said lead researcher Dr. Haidong Wang, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Wang said knowing whether the excess deaths occurred as a direct result of the pandemic or as indirect consequences, such as a lack of access to healthcare, behavioral changes or drug use, is important, yet difficult, to know. “Studies from several countries including Sweden and the Netherlands suggest Covid-19 was the direct cause of most excess deaths, but we currently don’t have enough evidence for most locations,” Wang said. “Further research will help to reveal how many deaths were caused directly by Covid-19, and how many occurred as an indirect result of the pandemic.”

Surprising Fact

Iceland, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, and Taiwan were actually estimated to have had fewer deaths than expected in the two years studied, the researchers found. Strict lockdowns and health interventions were likely responsible for the decrease, the researchers said, limiting exposure to the risks of some diseases and injuries not related to the pandemic. The evidence base is too small to draw any firm conclusions on decreasing mortality rates during the study period, however, and the researchers said further study could examine the effect of lockdowns on changes to specific causes of death.

Key Background

The estimate makes up the first peer reviewed estimate of global excess deaths during the pandemic for 191 countries and territories. The large gap between excess deaths and official records illustrates the true scale of the pandemic and the amount not captured by government data. The figure, coming two years to the day after the WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic, is a stark reminder of the significant health impact Covid-19 which, beyond death, includes the suffering experienced for those sick with Covid or experiencing symptoms of long Covid, those who have lost loved ones or faced mental health struggles during various lockdowns and restrictions.

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