Tristan Wirfs Injury Complicates Tough Stretch For Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Following their overtime loss to the Cleveland Browns, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are entering a critical stretch of their season and go into it needing to overcome an injury to one of the most important players on their offense.

Tampa Bay’s 23-17 defeat in Cleveland saw them lose right tackle Tristan Wirfs to an ankle injury. It is expected to sideline him for three to four weeks, according to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport. Though that means he will be back in time for the playoffs, it is still a tough timescale for arguably the best player in the NFL at his position as the Buccaneers look to navigate an extremely tricky run of games and make sure of their place in the postseason.

At 5-6, the Buccaneers lead the NFC South but are far from secure of a playoff berth and are unlikely to have it easy over the next three games as they face a string of teams well-equipped to take advantage of the absence of Wirfs.

Despite an offseason of significant change on the offensive line, the trenches have still be an area of strength for the Buccaneers, who have allowed a pressure rate of 12.7 percent that is the best in the NFL, according to Pro Football Reference.

With Wirfs out of the picture, that number could quickly deteriorate as the Buccaneers prepare to face the New Orleans Saints in primetime before taking on the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals.

The Saints’ defense produced an excellent display, albeit one that came in vain in a shutout loss to the 49ers, as they benefited from the likes of Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport returning from injury. Going against a replenished New Orleans defensive front, the Niners allowed a season-high 20 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus (h/t David Lombardi of The Athletic).

San Francisco’s defense was even more dominant in keeping the Saints out of the endzone, with 49ers ranking in the top 10 in pressure rate, per Pro Football Reference, and in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate. The Niners’ ability to consistently get pressure with just four pass rushers figures to cause huge problems for Tom Brady and the Bucs in their Week 14 meeting.

Cincinnati is an impressive 11th in Expected Points Added per play on defense, per rbsdm.com, and seventh in dropback EPA, and the Bengals’ front — while maybe not as imposing as those of the Saints and Niners — is fifth in the NFL in with a quarterback knockdown rate of 11.7%.

In other words, each of the three defenses next on the schedule for Tampa Bay are likely to cause a Buccaneer offense that is 21st in EPA per play and 27th in points per drive substantial problems.

Those issues are likely to be magnified without Wirfs on the sideline and the Buccaneers forced to start Josh Wells as his deputy. The assumption is the Bucs, despite their futility on offense, will still win the South and host a home playoff game. How they fare in this testing stretch without a pivotal cog in their offense will go a long way to determining whether that notion becomes a reality.