Trends appear to be geared towards a retest of 1.31 low seen in July – Scotiabank

USD/CAD holds in upper 1.33s. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Intraday support is 1.3350

USD/CAD’s push below retracement support at 1.3495 (50% Fibonacci of the July/November move up) last week yielded a quick move lower and keeps momentum favouring more losses to the upper 1.32s in the short run (76.4% retracement at 1.3283). That would put spot well below trend support off the April 2022 low which sits at 1.3323 on the weekly chart. 

Ultimately, after repeated failures in the 1.39 area, trends appear to be geared towards a retest of the 1.31 low seen in July but that may come after a moderate USD rebound early next year.

Intraday resistance is 1.3400/1.3410. Support is 1.3350.