Trend is your friend – OCBC

The Euro (EUR) extended its move lower amid broad USD strength while political uncertainties in Germany is not helping. EUR was last seen at 1.0521 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risks remain skewed to the downside

“Elsewhere EU-UST yield differentials continued to widen, validating EUR’s ‘fair value’ relative to yield differentials. Daily momentum is bearish while RSI fell. Risks remain skewed to the downside. Next support at 1.0450/1.05 levels. Resistance at 1.06, 1.0740 (76.4% fibo fibo retracement of 2024 low to high), 1.0780 (21 DMA).”

“On German politics, the minority government faces economic and diplomatic challenges. PM Scholz is seeking confidence vote earlier on 16 Dec instead of 15 Jan – but is expected to lose. Snap elections likely planned for 23 Feb.”

“Overall, EUR should continue to bear the brunt of the US election outcome. Trump presidency will result in shifts in US foreign, trade policies. The potential 20% tariff (if implemented) can hurt Europe where growth is already slowing, and that US is EU’s top export destination.”