‘Transformers,’ ‘Twilight’ And The Worst-Reviewed Blockbuster Franchises

We’ll find out soon enough if The Gray Man is more than a standard (in terms of big Netflix originals) two-week wonder. That they’ve “announced” a sequel and a spin-off is less a signifier of success than a premature gambit to create the illusion of “franchise = success” victory. Nonetheless, let’s say The Gray Man gets a sequel (let alone a sequel and a spin-off), the odds are still stacked against it in terms of being the beginning of an ongoing A-level franchise. Why? Because the film has majority-negative reviews, with a 46% rotten and 5.6/10 average critic score (out of 226 critics) on Rotten Tomatoes. While many an ongoing franchise has withstood poorly reviewed sequels and/or prequels, few have played at the top of the global box office food chain without at least one initially well-reviewed franchise-starter.

How many poorly reviewed movies have earned top-tier grosses?

Just for potential education, I pulled every film that has earned at least $600 worldwide while earning a “rotten” score (fewer than 60% of the total participating critics giving the movie at least a 6/10 or “it’s fine, I guess” review). There are 175 movies, counting Thor: Love and Thunder, which had earned at least $600 million global (sans inflation, shifting critical tastes, and total participating critics for a given title). Of those films, just (unless I missed one) 42 Hollywood films (sans a few Chinese blockbusters) have earned majority-negative reviews. I’ll paste the list at the end, but 2/3 of them are sequels or prequels. At the same time, five of the non-sequels are either “new” installments in an ongoing cinematic universe (Suicide Squad) or a Disney live-action remake/revamp (Alice in Wonderland, Maleficent, Aladdin and The Lion King).

Venom soared in China ($269 million) for an $854 million cume. The Da Vinci Code, based on a popular and controversial book with Tom Hanks in the lead role), earned $760 million in 2006. Mel Gibson’s Passion of the Christ, a once-in-a-generation event for irregular moviegoers, earned $370 million domestic and $622 million worldwide on a $30 million budget. Roland Emmerich’s 2012 remains the biggest global grosser ($765 million) with the lowest domestic total ($166 million). Michael Bay’s Transformers earned a 58% but still pulled a “Hey; this is better than we all thought it would be” post-release narrative. Will Smith’s Hancock is still the biggest grossing live-action original superhero movie with $624 million. Mamma Mia! earned $609 million worldwide in 2008, including just $5 million less overseas than The Dark Knight and Indiana Jones 4.

Zack Snyder’s Man of Steel ($669 million in 2013) kicked off a “successful” franchise while stumbling enough for WB to turn its sequel into Batman v Superman. I’d argue Mamma Mia! would get better notices today due to shifting critical demographics (less stuffy white dudes) although Here We Go Again is just a better movie. Ditto Peter Berg’s underrated Hancock (an adult-skewing superhero deconstruction about America’s role as the “world cop” before The Boys). Mamma Mia!, Venom, Man of Steel and Da Vinci Code spawned at least one sequel. Alice Through the Looking Glass ($299 million) tanked while Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($495 million) underwhelmed. The Suicide Squad was a “good sequel gets punished for a lousy predecessor” commercial whiff. There is precisely one poorly-reviewed franchise starter that unquestionably spawned a successful top-tier franchise, namely Michael Bay’s Transformers films.

The Lion King is the biggest-grossing movie ($1.663 billion) with a negative Tomatometer score, while Transformers: Age of Extinction is the worst-reviewed film (17% and 4/10) to top $1 billion worldwide. Between you and me, Age of Extinction is my favorite of the series. It’s gloriously gigantic and completely off-the-walls bananas in a way that now feels almost subversive. Moreover, a cast-to-type Mark Wahlberg makes a better protagonist than a poorly directed Shia LeBeouf. Meanwhile, I’d argue Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides ($1.1 billion with a 33% rotten score) is the worst movie ever to top $1 billion. But since so many of the films in question are sequels or prequels, which franchises are “the worst”? By that, what franchise thrived atop the global box office despite consistently bad reviews? The answer may (not?) surprise you.

Transformers (Paramount)

The obvious answer is indeed Michael Bay’s first five Transformers movies. They earned (respectively) $735 million, $836 million, $1.124 billion, $1.104 billion and $605 million between 2007 and 2014, while earning terrible reviews that (fairly or not) made it the go-to example of big blockbusters that succeeded despite miserable notices. However, the Transformers movies succeeded thanks to popular IP, a marquee director and its existence mainly in a time when A) Hollywood spending $150-$250 million to turn a kids toy series into a big-deal, top-of-the-line sci-fi action spectacular was still unique. Moreover, the Transformers films delivered bigger blockbuster spectacle and one-of-a-kind vulgarity that you couldn’t find anywhere else. Once the (more wholesome) MCU films matched the Transformers movies in terms of spectacle, well, The Last Knight barely cracked $600 million.

The Twilight Saga (Summit/Lionsgate)

The Twilight Saga sits alongside the Transformers films as among the only top-tier franchises to begin with a poorly-reviewed initial installment. The first (and still pretty good dammit) Twilight earned $392 million worldwide, while New Moon (the worst by a sizable margin) broke out a year later with $696 million. Eclipse would earn $698 million in 2010. Breaking Dawn 1 would make $712 million in 2011 and Breaking Dawn 2 (which features a spectacular final thirty minutes) would gross $830 million in 2012. Part of the critical ire over the Kristen Stewart/Robert Pattinson films was rooted in “Eww, it’s a girl’s movie!” bias (from both male pundits and female pundits who preferred their heroines to be more concerned with war than love). Still, the generation that grew up loving them has somewhat changed the critical narrative.

Pirates of the Caribbean (Walt Disney)

All four Pirates of the Caribbean sequels were relatively poorly reviewed upon release. The first two Gore Verbinski-directed sequels have aged very well in terms of being larger-than-life, practically crafted and singularly unique action-fantasy spectaculars. Curse of the Black Pearl was a classic “Nobody expected it to be that good!” surprise smash, earning $654 million in 2003. Dead Man’s Chest was a classic breakout sequel, becoming just the third movie to top $1 billion worldwide. Whether you’re like me and at least think Dead Men Tell No Tales (the biggest grossing Hollywood movie, with $795 million, to earn less than $200 million domestic) is at least better than On Stranger Tides, this isn’t a well Disney wanted to dip back into unless they had nowhere else to go even before Johnny Depp’s offscreen behavior and allegations made him (arguably) radioactive.

DC Films’ SnyderVerse (Warner Bros.)

Suicide Squad ($745 million) is a David Ayers-directed film (give or take studio interference) and Justice League ($659 million) is a streamlined version of Zack Snyder’s epic intentions with Joss Whedon’s studio-demanded, tone-altering reshoots. That DC Films is still standing represents a new normal where some IP is too big to fail. WB isn’t entirely off the hook. They panicked after Man of Steel ($669 million) and overemphasized Batman in both Batman v Superman ($873 million) and Justice League. However, everything that transpired in the last decade was because Snyder, David Goyer and Chris Nolan’s Superman reboot didn’t work with critics or (so says a 2.27x domestic multiplier) general audiences. Snyder is the only director outside of Michael Bay with three credited films on this list. Fair or not, social media is not real life.

Jurassic Park/Jurassic World (Universal)

The dino horror fantasy series doesn’t have four entries on this list only because Jurassic World earned positive (71% fresh) notices, and Jurassic Park III didn’t clear $400 million in the summer of 2001. Despite the handwringing over Dominion racing past $950 million worldwide despite lousy reviews, most of the Jurassic sequels weren’t critical darlings. We can debate to what extent Steven Spielberg’s The Lost World or Joe Dante’s Jurassic Park III have improved (or not) with age. Nonetheless, all six Jurassic movies offer “can’t get this anywhere else” thrills involving blue-collar and non-super heroic people encountering and occasionally being slaughtered by authentically created dinosaurs. Besides, in a media less dominated by geek coverage and IP-specific fandoms, no one would have expected Dino Park Massacre 6 to get good reviews in the first place.

Ice Age (Fox)

Like Final Destination, the first Ice Age is a somewhat serious and grounded fantasy film about the cruel randomness of death in our natural (and sometimes unnatural) world. Like the Final Destination series, the initial “pretty damn good” installment gave way to more farcical and fantastical sequels that were less emotional and more borderline (relative qualify notwithstanding) cartoonish in nature. The Meltdown ($652 million) was a classic breakout sequel. Dawn of the Dinosaurs opened in a significant gap in the summer schedule, hired marketplace-specific celebrities to voice the characters in each respective territory and took advantage of then-novel 3-D to create a cinematic equivalent of a roller coaster ride. In the summer of 2009, it was the third-biggest overseas gross ever behind Titanic and Return of the King. Ice Age 3 and Ice Age 4 both topped $875 million globally.

The rest

Despicable Me 3 ($1 billion) and Minions ($1.1 billion) both received “barely negative” notices (59% and 55%, respectively), even as the other three installments earned positive reviews. I’d argue the first Minions prequel (my own opinions aside) likely would have played better with today’s crop of critics. While Shrek Forever After ($752 million) was better than Shrek The Third ($812 million), it likely paid commercially for the former’s mediocrity. The ninth Fast and Furious ($721 million) and the ninth Star Wars ($1.073 billion) were (arguable) bottom of the barrel for those franchises, while The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies ($955 million) barely missed a “fresh” rating. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald ($659 million) was so bad that it killed the franchise. Widespread consensus would argue likewise for Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($709 million).

What about The Gray Man?

Audiences may keep casually watching the Ryan Gosling/Chris Evans actioner and still sample the second one if it gets made (still waiting on Bright 2 and any update on the two promised Red Notice movies). But will audiences continue to keep watching Gray Man 3, Gray Man 4 and/or Gray Man Origins or whatever else the Russos claim they want to make? History suggests “absolutely not.” The series doesn’t offer “can’t get this anywhere else” value akin to Jurassic, Twilight and Transformers, nor is it capitalizing on Disney-specific nostalgia like those live-action remakes. I’m not sure what would have happened to DC Films after Batman v Superman had WB not been under pressure to deliver an approximation of the MCU, but Sierra Six and Lloyd Hanson are not Batman and the Joker.

You can spawn a hit franchise mostly comprised of poorly reviewed sequels. The Fast and the Furious began as a $40 million critical miss about street-racing DVD thieves. But history shows that you usually have to at least start with a well-received “part one.” The first entries in the Dirty Harry, Jaws, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Lethal Weapon, Die Hard, Batman, Jurassic Park, Men In Black, Matrix, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Spider-Man, Pirates of the Caribbean, Iron Man, Hangover, Hunger Games, Pitch Perfect and John Wick franchises all started on the right foot. And The Gray Man has to contend with offering not its own unique set of thrills but an approximation of what Hollywood already provides. Netflix’s The Gray Man could be the exception to the rule, but now it has to be.