Top 10 Changes In Last Four Years

Let’s start with this. No top 25 U.S. trade partner has seen its trade grow more slowly than China’s since 2018.

This doesn’t tell the whole story, not even close, but it’s a good place to start.

2018 is a reasonable benchmark since it is prior to former President Donald Trump’s broad-brush tariffs to Chinese imports taking full effect, tariffs that have been left in place by President Biden.

Here’s the No. 2 impact: In that time, U.S. merchandise trade is up 26.21%, according to the latest annual U.S. Census Bureau data. China’s is up a meager 4.66%.

Here’s No. 3: In that time, China has fallen from being the United States’ top trade partner to ranking third, well behind Canada and Mexico.

Here’s No. 4: In that time, China’s percentage of U.S. trade is lower, at 13.01%, than any year in the last 15 years.

While China set a record for U.S. trade in 2022, it did not top the 2018 total for imports. Those are still down $1.78 billion, or 0.33%. U.S. imports from the world increased 27.67% in that time.

While I could write about those imports that have suffered, the far more interesting story is the exports. U.S. exports to China are up 27.89% from 2018, faster than U.S. exports to the world, which are up 23.97%.

What are some examples of those exports?

Here’s No. 5: U.S. exports of soybeans to China, once in the crosshairs of the trade dispute, are up 473% since 2018. That year, U.S. soybean exports to China dipped to 18.18%, after having topped 60% three of the previous five years. In 2022, the total topped 50% for the second year in a row. It is the leading U.S. export to China.

No. 6: For the first time, China was the United States’ leading export market for the broad category of vaccines, plasma and other blood fractions. The value has jumped a somewhat similar percentage to soybeans since 2018, up 456%. It was the 19th most valuable export to China in 2018; in 2022, it ranked fourth. The category is dominated by immunological drugs.

No. 7: Corn exports to China have soared 8,791% since 2018, going from 0.46% of all shipments to the world to a record 27.65 % in 2022. For the second year in a row, China is the largest buyer of U.S. corn. It has moved from the No. 222-ranked U.S. export to China in 2018 to No. 7.

No. 8: For the first time, China is the largest buyer of frozen beef, having seen its market share increase from a then-record 1.49% in 2018 to 29.48% in 2022. The increase over that time period was 3,094%. Frozen beef exports, which ranked No. 236 in 2918, ranked No. 16 in 2022.

No. 9: U.S. poultry exports to China, overwhelmingly chicken cut into pieces, have increased better than 1 million percent, going from $105,222 to $1,10 billion. China has gone from less than one-third of 1% to 20.32% in 2022, supplanting Mexico to rank N0. 1 among the nation’s trade partners.

Then there’s the trade deficit with China, still the United States’ largest. But get this: It used to be five times the second-largest deficit (Mexico’s) but in 2022, that had fallen to less three times (still Mexico).

So, one last item in the top 10:

No. 10: The United States set a record in 2022 with eight of the nine top 10 trade partners with a deficit: Canada, Mexico, Germany, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and India. The exception? The U.S. deficit with China has shrunk slightly, from $419.62 billion to $382.92 billion. (The only U.S. surplus among its top 10 trade partners is with the United Kingdom.) Just as importantly, the ratio of exports to imports has improved more with China than any other top 20 trade partner, increasing better than 22%. Exports accounted for 22% of all U.S.-China trade, imports 68%, an improvement from 18% and 82%, respectively. For the United States as a whole, the percentage change was from 40% exports in 2018 to 39% in 2022.