Toncoin Price Rebound? Accumulation Signals At A Comeback

Toncoin (TON) demonstrates growing signs of accumulation that suggest market data indicates upcoming changes to its price action.

Meanwhile, the market value decrease of Toncoin shows signs that selling pressure might be reaching its peak. Continuing present market patterns leads to indications that recovery could materialize.

Accumulation Trends Suggest Market Positioning

Recent CryptoQuant data shows that TON’s 180-day Sharpe Ratio indicates ongoing accumulation. A prolonged downtrend suggests speculation has slowed, allowing investors to build positions at lower price levels.

Changes in decentralized exchange (DEX) activity and consistent total value locked (TVL) in lending further support this trend.

The prices correlated with abnormalities in both the Medium-Term Normalized Risk Metric (NRM) and volatility during December 2024 and February 2025.

Due to stable prices combined with declining volatility, the market might be showing signs of reduced vendor activity.

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The upcoming market conditions might result in a price rebound because demand shows signs of improvement.

Long-Term Holders Show Strong Conviction

TON’s Normalized Risk Metric shows that investors are building positions at a price point that reaches $3.82.

Recent historical events have shown that previous phases usually developed before market recoveries occurred.

Long-Term NRM achieved the lowest levels in history which indicates that long-term investors strategically position themselves in anticipation of rising stock value.

Additional indicators also point to accumulation. The Probability of Spend metric, which measures the likelihood of older coins being sold, remains low. This suggests that investors holding TON for over 400 days are not actively selling, signaling confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.

Leverage and Risk Exposure in the Market

The Risk Exposure Ratio showing leveraged positions against total TVL surpassed 0.24 during the beginning of 2025.

Advanced positions through leveraged investments compose a considerable segment of the DeFi activities on TON.

Market stability might improve while price movements become healthier when this ratio starts trending downward.

Position sales of short- to medium-term holders seem to occur at present while long-term holders keep their investments steady. The current market situation matches historical accumulation patterns which used to be followed by long periods of negative returns before recovery.

The market signals a potential change because decreasing risk exposure combines with ongoing accumulation from long-term holders.

Toncoin’s Reduced Volatility Hints at a Potential Breakout

The market value of TON has shown reduced price swings throughout recent trading days. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, the tightening Bollinger Bands on the 12-hour chart typically predicts forthcoming significant price fluctuations.

“Periods of low volatility often lead to swift price movements,” Martinez noted.

However, it remains uncertain whether the next move will be upward or downward.

TON looks likely to experience a reversal because buying demand remains stable while selling pressure becomes less intense. The market awaits strong signs of a possible breakout during upcoming weeks.