To Trade Alexis Diaz, The Reds Will Have To Be Offered Something They Need More

The first thing commentators and fans alike tend to mention when talking about Cincinnati Reds closer Alexis Diaz is the fact that he is the brother of injured superstar New York Mets reliever, Edwin Diaz. But the first thing that should be mentioned is the fact that Alexis is one of the best relief pitchers in the game as well.

Certainly, Edwin has the longer pedigree. Debuting back in 2016 with the Seattle Mariners, he has since then been – with the exception of the 2019 season in which he was prone to leaking home runs – one of the game’s most fearsome closers. For his career to date, Edwin has turned 404 appearances into 399.1 innings, 205 saves, a 139 ERA+ and a colossal 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings. When he is on, he is unhittable.

However, so is Alexis. In his 75 career outings to date, he has recorded 78.2 innings, a truly savage 236 ERA+ and 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings of his own. The fact that he has only 19 career saves is much more of an indictment of last year’s incredibly fragile Reds bullpen than it is of Diaz himself, and indeed of the entire pitching staff; as a measure of such, despite being the closer, Diaz’s seven wins led the Reds last season. When he is on, he, too, cannot be touched.

Armed with a fastball/slider combination as good as Edwin’s, Alexis gets a huge whiff rate on both. He has needed no third pitch when he has a whiff rate on the two he already has that is in the 99th percentile of the entire majors. Hitters miss the lively 95-98 mph fastball, and chase the sharp slider in the opposite batter’s box. As difficult as it has been to have confidence in much of the Reds’ spluttering starting rotation, there has been huge solace in knowing that, when carrying a lead into the ninth, it is over – the Reds will win.

Furthermore, although he is only two and a half years younger than Edwin, Alexis’s relative inexperience works in Cincinnati’s favour. By virtue of being so much less experienced than his older brother, the Reds have far more team control over Diaz’s future, and more control over the cost of his prime years. And therefore, so will any team trading for him.

Since players cannot become free agents until after their sixth season, Alexis is not eligible for free agency until 2028, and is not even eligible for arbitration until 2025. Therefore, not only is he costing a mere $730,000 for his elite-level work this season; he will not cost much more than that for a while, either. Any team trying to trade for Diaz this season – and there will surely be many – will need to somehow find the right outgoing package that reflects Diaz’s quality, his cost relative to his performance, and that can somehow offer things in the medium- to long-term futures that will be more beneficial to Cincinnati than Diaz will be.

This will not be easy, especially since, for one thing, the Reds do not need any more infield prospects. Like every team, they could always use more pitching prospects; however, there surely will not be many prospects available that figure to be as good as Alexis already is. Given his age and team control, selling off Diaz is not a mandatory part of the rebuild. Instead, he can be a big part of it.

It seems likely that the Reds will take calls on Diaz, considering his quality, and how much it outstrips that of the team currently around him. High-leverage unhittable bullpen arms are imperative to any title aspirations, and all contenders will surely place calls to see how much acquiring him will cost them.

Precisely because of that, though, the Reds ought hold on to Alexis Diaz for the remainder of this season. He may in the short term only be the difference between 70 and 75 wins. But good luck getting someone else who can do that.