Time To Acknowledge Ukrainian Airspace Is As Dangerous As 1961 Berlin

The tools are different, and the location has changed, but NATO and Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, are engaged in a repeat of an epic October 27, 1961 Cold War standoff, when combat-ready American and Soviet tanks faced off in Berlin. Back then, the Soviets were reneging on Post World War II agreements that guaranteed the allies unfettered access to East Berlin, and America successfully sent in tanks to maintain those rights.

Today, the Ukraine border is a modern-day Checkpoint Charlie, and, instead of tanks, American reconnaissance platforms are confronting Russian anti-aircraft missile batteries and fighter aircraft. And, rather than backing out of post-World War II access agreements, Russia is set to renege on a guarantee of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

A miscalculation now will have catastrophic consequences. 

Outside of the unarmed reconnaissance flights, America has taken great pains to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.

In February, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv closed, and U.S. citizens were warned to leave. Those U.S. citizens who remained were told, if war began, “the U.S. Government will not be able to evacuate U.S. citizens.” 160 military trainers were repositioned out of Ukraine, and U.S. staff helping the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitor ceasefire violations near the Ukrainian border left as well. 

America has repeatedly indicated that it is unwilling to get sucked into a Ukraine conflict. But it won’t stand idly by, either. On February 18, U.S. President Joe Biden reiterated in a Roosevelt Room statement, America “will not send troops in to fight in Ukraine, but we will continue to support the Ukrainian people.”

Those two goals may well be mutually exclusive. 

For example, if Russia attacks an unarmed U.S. reconnaissance aircraft that is supporting Ukraine, the act may well trigger the mutual defense stipulations in the NATO alliance. And as Biden has repeatedly warned, the alliance is “prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory from any threat to our collective security.” 

The public, however, is unaware of the potential risk. it is hard to easily relate the stakes at hand here, and the airspace over Ukraine is not be as easily captured by journalists as the Checkpoint Charlie standoff was in 1961. America and NATO must be crystal clear to both Putin and the public on the consequences of a Russian attack on any NATO aircraft.

Soviet and NATO tanks may not be targeting each other directly right now, but the situation is as volatile as it was sixty-one years ago.

NATO Recon Flights Are Unarmed And At Risk

For months now, a fleet of unarmed NATO aircraft and drones have kept a steady eye on Russian troop movements. Almost every day, a mix of RQ-4 Global Hawk drones, RC-135 signals intelligence aircraft, E-8c Joint Stars battle management aircraft, and probably a few other things have lazily orbited across Ukraine airspace, keeping watch. 

Operating in Ukrainian airspace with the permission of Ukrainian authorities, America’s overhead intelligence assets have been incredibly useful. Integral in rebutting Russian misinformation, the surveillance flights have provided clear evidence of Russian activities on the ground. 

But once war opens, and Ukraine airspace is contested, these flights will become far more dangerous and far more valuable. The Ukrainian military will be desperate for real-time information on Russian locations, while NATO will gleefully use the flights to hoover up every bit of information they can on Russian tactics and military gear. And while the aircraft may be in Ukraine airspace, helping Ukraine, the status and disposition of these unarmed aircraft—and the crews aboard—are clear. They are NATO aircraft, and an attack on one will be an attack upon all members of NATO. 

Russia does not appreciate close scrutiny. It has regularly hassled unarmed NATO reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace. These confrontations have continued, and earlier this month, Russian fighter jets made “unprofessional intercepts,” in the Mediterranean, coming within inches of U.S. P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. 

The risk is real. If Putin widens the conflict in Ukraine, his first step will likely be to seize control of Ukrainian airspace with little or no warning. With American aircraft or drones in the air, conducting 24-hours a day surveillance, those aircraft unfortunate enough to be in the wrong place at the wrong time are likely to be engaged by Russian aircraft or missile systems. A loss of a highly classified surveillance drone is tough enough to bear, but the loss of a crewed reconnaissance aircraft, and the potential loss of, say, a E-8C Joint Star with more than 20 crew members, is a route towards the invocation of NATO’s Article 5, where an attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all.

Now is time for real talk. To date, NATO has been reluctant to discuss sanctions or to detail how NATO will support Free Ukraine during an invasion. Russia, too, has been quiet about their potential responses. Nobody wants to show their cards. But, with a Russian assault looming, the present risks to unarmed NATO surveillance aircraft are urgent and tangible. Continued ambiguity is dangerous. The ongoing failure by either side to clearly articulate the risks and consequences of miscalculation over Ukraine make Ukraine’s airspace far more perilous for the world than when Soviet and American tanks faced off in 1961 Berlin.