Time Is The Key Factor For The Russian And Ukrainian Military Strategies

The war between Russia and Ukraine recently surpassed the five month mark. What initially started out as a fast-paced, dynamic war has turned into a slow-moving, crushing war of attrition that neither side desired. Indeed, Russia’s initial strategy was to overwhelm Ukrainian defense forces, seize Kiev, and force the government to capitulate. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian strategy projected that international pressure, coupled with crushing the initial invasion, would force the Russians to pull out of their country.

At the strategic level, the military leadership and governments of both countries have remained committed to their initial objectives. The Russian military seeks to “demilitarize” Ukraine, a euphemism for destroying their military and taking control of the country. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military wants to expel the Russian invaders from their country. While many are skeptical of either country achieving their objectives, both countries have adopted strategies that could eventually allow them to achieve their goals.

Much of the Russian strategy is focused on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. In this region, the Russian military has adopted a traditional “fire-and-maneuver” tactic, where they barrage a region with artillery and then move their infantry into the region to secure it. This process is fairly effective for taking territory, albeit slow, expensive, and resulting in extensive collateral damage. The Russian military can achieve this type of maneuver given the large amount of artillery allocated to each Battalion Tactical Group. This slow-moving process allows the Russian ground forces to have cover from their artillery and air-defense assets, limiting the ability of Ukrainian artillery and drones.

The major challenge with this approach is logistics since it relies on a constant resupply of ammunition and artillery barrels. Moreover, since the movement is slow, the troops need a constant resupply of food and diesel fuel. The Russians have had problems since the war started with providing the necessary logistical resupply. Additionally, the command structure of the Russian military requires that the command posts be in fairly forward positions, making them vulnerable to attacks.

With the main Russian effort being in the Donbas region, the Russian troops in other areas are somewhat underequipped and undermanned. While their stated objective is to hold key locations to allow for future expansion out of the Donbas region, their larger objective is likely to tie down Ukrainian forces and make them expend their resources. Although the Ukrainian military has been given substantial military aid from abroad, they still have only a limited supply on much of their advanced military system.

Unlike the Russian military, much of the Ukrainian military is focused outside of the Donbas region, where the Ukrainian military has launched a series of counteroffensives to retake cities and land previously captured by the Russian forces. They have had considerable success in the north, having taken back the city of Kharkiv and having soldiers even reach the Ukraine-Russia border. They are now focusing their efforts on retaking control of territories in the south, especially around Kherson. By retaking Kherson or even by destroying the bridge in the city, they are limiting the ability for the Russian forces to move forces from the Crimea into south and west Ukraine. In containing the Russian military to the Donbas region, the Ukrainian forces will eventually be able to focus their full military on retaking that region.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian strategy in the Donbas region is to offer a limited, but still very significant, amount of resistance to the Russian forces, forcing the Russians to use their cautious “fire-and-maneuver” tactic. In order to conserve personnel and equipment, the Ukrainian forces appear to be targeting Russian logistics and command nodes, a tactic that has been used since the start of the war. The TB-2 drones are having limited effect, so the Ukrainians are using the HIMARS weapon systems and foreign artillery equipment to destroy these Russian targets.

Further, the resistance from the Ukrainian military allows them to retain some popular support in the region. The support of the local population would likely decrease if the Ukrainian military simply withdrew from the region. By retaining popular support, the Ukrainians can set the stage for a future insurgency if the Ukrainian military is not able to retake the Donbas region.

These strategies are not sustainable given the current state of the militaries. Morale has plagued the Russian military, and the months of fighting has taken its toll on the Ukrainian military as well. Further, both countries have lost a considerable amount of troops and equipment without direct pathways to replenish either. Moreover, from a long term perspective, it makes poor financial sense for the Russians to completely demolish an area that they are about to occupy. Regardless, neither country is moving aggressively to win this war in the near future. Rather, it appears that underlying each country’s strategy is the plan that time will play to their advantage, giving them the edge on the battlefield.

The Russians forces will likely benefit from the arrival of winter. As winter approaches, the European reliance on Russian energy will increase, forcing some countries to reduce their support to Ukraine. As support wains for Ukraine, so would military aid. The Russians hope that without the steady stream of military aid, the Ukrainian military will collapse, allowing the Russian military to take Kiev.

The Ukrainian military is similarly hoping that as the war drags on, external factors will force the Russians to withdraw. The sanctions and the war itself are putting a heavy toll on the Russian population. Additionally, the large human and material cost of the war will decrease public support for the war. The Ukrainians hope that these actions will force the Russian government to end the war. Even if they do not end the war, the Ukrainians hope that the Russians will pull back forces, allowing the Ukrainians to retake Russian-controlled territory, including the Donbas.

While both strategies are somewhat optimistic, these external factors will likely play an increasingly important role as this war continues on.